Thread by @DedalusDelegate

1/ #SunTzu is credited for the phrase “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”. This phrase makes sense in warfare. Lets try to analyze the Russian invasion of #Ukraine in this context. Hopefully, this will shed light on the inner workings of the conflict.

2/ At this point, it is no secret that #Russia performance in the #war is mediocre. It failed to conquer Ukraine, a much smaller and less populated country. Moreover, Russia even failed to encircle #Kyiv and #Kharkiv. There is no way to hide this, the Russian armed forces suck.

3/ At the same time, Russian saber rattling is on an all-time high. Russian propagandist threaten to attack #NATO countries. For example, #Lithuania and #Poland in the #Suwalki gap and the #US in #Alaska. “Appear strong when you are weak.” #Putin propagandists know their #SunTzu.

4/ Nonetheless, the would-be-conqueror not conquering land represents unequivocal sign of losing. Moreover, Russia has isolated itself from the world. Selling hydrocarbons at a discount, while having their strategic imports and a sizable part of their monetary reserves frozen.

5/ The obligatory question is: What now? What will the losing side (Russia) do now? There are three events worth considering: 1) “A collapse of leadership", 2) “concede defeat", and 3) "try a desperate gambit". Maybe they will occur in that order, maybe not.

6/ Firstly, "a collapse of leadership", will happen sooner or later at this rate. If Russia keeps mounting losses, something will break. Therefore a breakdown or reordering of the government is expected. Maybe the collapse will be visible and sudden, maybe not.

7/ A case of sudden collapse was the Mussolini government. One day he was on power. The next day he was in prison. A case of protracted collapse was Milosevic grip over Yugoslavia. It took a decade to stop that madman. Lets hope for a quick collapse of the Russian government.

8/ Secondly, "concede defeat" is a tad more complex. Maybe Putin will ask for peace. Or maybe the aforementioned collapse will come first and the new leadership will initiate the end of hostilities. Whichever the case, someone will have to throw someone under the bus.

9/ A surrendering Russia wil have tol blame some high-ranking official and move from there. At this point it is not clear whether Putin will be on the receiving end of such purge. Personally, I think justice would be best served by making him and his sycophants responsible.

10/ The third event requires the most attention in my opinion. A losing Putin will become desperate and therefore will try high-risk gambits. We must prepare for such scenarios. Such gambits may be an act of desperation or it may calculated. Note that such gambits sometimes work.

11/ Examples of "gambits" or "Hail Mary" moments in war abound. For this conversation I'll just touch on two cases that worked. Namely, Gideon in his battle against the Midianites as recorded in the Bible and Oda Nobunaga in the battle of Okehazama against the Imagawa.

12/ Note that both cases represent a mix of historical events, account distortions, and flat out propaganda. Therefore we must take the stories with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, both events represent accurately the realities in the battlefield that we are now considering.

13/ Both Gideon and Oda Nobunaga victories were possible thanks to the fog of war and clever deception. Both strategists separated by thousands of miles and hundreds of years, gave the impression that they commanded a much larger army. In both cases, their enemies panicked.

14/ Just to be clear. In both cases there had to be a fight. Gideon did attack the Medianites and Oda Nobunaga did attack the Imagawa camp. In both cases, the enemy could have won a 1-on-1 fight. But they didn't. The panic decided the battle. The attacker became the victor.

15/ The question now is. Could something similar happen now? Could the Russians pull a Gideon? I say it is possible and we (the pro-Ukraine side) must prepare for such eventuality. We must be on the lookout of Russian attempts to sow panic and discord in the Ukrainian camp.

16/ Lets push the question a little more. Are the Russian already doing it? I say they are and a lot of it is being done through Twitter. Therefore, I take the opportunity of this thread to request everyone to prepare their "Russian troll-detection skills".

17/ The following website "Spot the Troll" represents a good start to do this. It shows some cases of Russian propagandists in action. Highly recommended. Therefore, I end this thread with a request for everyone to check their website spotthetroll.org #StandWithUkraine

18/18 Previous thread:

https://twitter.com/DedalusDelegate/status/1543163183950508037