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Jul 11, 2022 14 tweets 9 min read Read on X
🧵Macro prediction for #OIL

Everyone in the world currently has a stressful moment visiting gas stations, they'll be delighted to hear, that for a few months forward this situation will get better as $OIL will be getting cheaper

However that will only apply for a while 👇

1/14
After the covid crash across global markets, we've seen some unprecedented printing that has sent the prices of assets to big highs, Oils included.

Oil is slightly lagging behind the rest of the commodities but we can expect the correlation to follow others

2/
Here we have #Copper & #Oil merged together, we can see the correlation being very effective & while most commodities have already pulled back to retest their previous support areas, Oil is yet to do so

It is merely lagging & stayed strong due to the war in Ukraine. For now.

3/
Note:

I have already written a huge thread on how commodities correlate with each other, including #Bitcoin.

If you wanna know more on that, read below

4/

If we simply look at the TA perspective, It has run from nearly zero to nearly new ATHs in just two years.

It has touched a prior untested resistance while taking a good chunk of liquidity which has been very well absorbed for the past months

5/
My estimate is that we are gonna retest the breaker point aka untested support this time around 77$

That will give a relief bounce down for many people as Gas prices have been really high this year

6/
Price tends to test its prior supports and we have a Monthly area of interest sitting in the blue zone below

From a Daily standpoint, the price has already entered a Bear Market in the Daily timeframe.

The same thing that has happened on #SPX prior to sell-off

7/
We have been held by the green zone support for a while as we have entered the distribution area, the same way, #Silver & #Copper has before the breakdown

And my estimate is, we gonna see the same thing here, just lagging

8/
Here are the distribution phases for #Copper & #Silver

9/
However after the breakdown happens I expect the price to react at the same area, #Copper is now reacting in.

As we are heading into a decade(s) of global commodity-backed economies I do expect new ATHs to see

10/

Remember, cash is trash and what we are seeing is the last point of the dead cat pump of fiat currencies before they head into their inevitable path of the graveyard, in their current form, with a survival rate of zero, in human history.

11/
So expect gas prices to get better for the rest of the year, maybe early next one, but expect them to get ridiculously high before this decade ends.

Luckily you can protect yourself and others by moving your savings into scarce stuff

12/
That will also include other commodities to follow, like #Copper, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #Palladium, and many others.

Which brings opportunities

13/
I do hope you enjoyed this thread & learned something valuable, something that could improve your life going forward

If you have, consider RT this thread with your friends by helping them as well which ultimately helps all of us. Thank you for taking the time to read it 🙌

14/

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More from @i_am_jackis

Mar 25
Here is the psychological truth about the #Bitcoin / #Crypto market 👇

The vast majority of market participants bought the top in 2021, whether the 1st or the 2nd. The exact price is unimportant for this post

🧵 Silent Read Time: 1 Min, 52 Sec Image
1) A decent portion of them sold the bottom, especially after the #FTX crash

Either from panic selling, multiplied by the fear spread on social media with posts such as:

EXIT ALL MARKETS or THE GREATEST RECESSION since THE GREAT DEPRESSION coming

The others from the greed of.. Image
..selling & buying back cheaper at lower prices

This was a prime example of the market going up thousands of % & yet people losing money on it

Those people are still waiting for a bigger pullback to buy cheap & will continue to do so & miss everything. Again.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 20
You don't wanna miss this #Bitcoin alpha thread 🧵👀

#BTC around 50K is still within a strong value area

Lots of people sidelined, waiting for a bigger correction will miss out

Data from Financial Advisors across the US are suggesting big future upside

1/20

Read below👇 Image
First of all, I did expect we would get the upside we got from the 40-45K range, but after, I thought we would get a deeper pullback at some point to like 32K or so

I do not think that anymore

Below is the original thread worth your time to read through

One of the reasons I don't think so anymore is the Weekly Market Structure

In any chart, remember, that for the HTF directional bias, the most important tool is the W1 MS

With the latest move, we got ourselves a new HL & HH confirming that Image
Read 22 tweets
Jan 13
BIG #BITCOIN ALPHA UPDATE 13/1/2024 🧵

No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context ✅

Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF

Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind

Let's get to it 👇

1/25Image
We start HTF, scale in & create the valuable context 👇

So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback


Image
So the 48K level caused a reaction as expected but imo we move higher still to distribute & there are multiple reasons for it

1) We spent 500+ days accumulating sub 30K, such energy simply doesn't get distributed in 30 days. At minimum 120+ days

Read 25 tweets
Aug 10, 2023
🧵 Big thread on INTEREST RATES around the Western economies & their future projections & implications on the markets

Everyone's focus is on the FED funds rate but by understanding all of them we get a much clearer picture of where the FED is heading 💡

Let's dive in 👇

1/22 Image
As you can see from the picture, central banks in Western economies tend to move the interest rates on average in a similar trend

We could even call it a consensus

However, some are frontrunners & some laggards and by comparing them all, we can get a general idea of the trend Image
Each economy has its own factors & issues that come to play in each country of course, which is the reason why we see some deviations here & there on a lower quarterly or yearly scale. But the general trend stays

So why is it that they all move together on average? 👇
Read 22 tweets
May 24, 2023
What I often see people doing wrong is waiting for that "One last" - 🧵 THREAD - 1/9

- "One last" draw on liquidity
- "One last" equal lows sweep
- "One last" capitulation
- "One last" shakeout
- "One last" - you name it ✍️ Image
For example, one (in)famous trader called ICT kept waiting for BTC to sweep the 2015 HTF equal lows

He has been waiting for the #Bitcoin crash and the sweep since then

It has never come to this day Image
In 2018 the situation was very similar. People kept waiting for lower. For that FVG/Inefficiency fill. For that prior ATH retest

Still waiting Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 18, 2023
RISK to REWARD / COST to BENEFIT 📚

🧵 In-depth thread about this phenomenon, that can be used in various aspects of our lives. Not just in trading

This will IMPROVE your life 👇

1/25
Risk to reward, in shortcut RRR or just RR, is an amazing concept that we use every day without even realizing it

But it is exactly that realization, which you will learn here, that will help you identify & use it effectively

2/
This concept is mainly to realize that everything we do in our lives and every decision we take involves risk/cost

The RR ratio then calculates how much reward there is for such risk

It can also be described mathematically as 0,2:1 / 2:1 / 5:1 and so on

3/
Read 25 tweets

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