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Jul 21 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Ford Flurry:

✅ Ford signs major deal with China’s CATL

✅ Locks in 60GWh of battery cells out to 2023 (variety of suppliers)

✅ Ford plan to establish 40GWh LFP capacity in North America (Canada?) - CATL Gigafactory?

✅ Mustang Mach E to use LFP

✅ EV CAGR 90% to 2026
Interesting to note: Ford says it has secured 70% of its lithium ion battery needs by 2026

To support 2m run rate of EV production.

Assuming this is full EVs this is 160GWh of cells a year by 2026.

This year the lithium ion battery industry will be ~600GWh total
@Ford signs Utah #lithium MOU with @compassminerals

businesswire.com/news/home/2022…
Ford on LFP entry: “Ford is adding lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cell chemistry to its portfolio, alongside its existing nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) chemistry. This creates even more capacity for high-demand products”
In line with our expectations: LFP is a great expansion of battery cell capacity / availability.

Ford cite 10-15% savings on NCM. But to achieve that Ford will need to get a grip on the price of lithium.

The price of LFP is almost as volatile as lithium itself.
Ford is working with:

Active miners:

Vale Canada
PT Vale Indonesia (nickel)
Huayou Cobalt
BHP (nickel)

Cathode in NA
EcoPro
SK ON

Anode in USA
@SyrahResources

Developers (all lithium)
@RioTinto - Rincon
Ioneer - Nevada
@LiontownRes - WA
@compassminerals - Utah

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More from @sdmoores

Simon Moores Profile picture
Jul 14
Panasonic to build second gigafactory in De Soto, Kansas. @benchmarkmin anticipates this $4bn investment to be for 50GWh battery plant

Tesla partnership central but don’t expect Panasonic’s US strategy to be just for Tesla

De Soto = 717 miles from Austin, 793 miles from Detroit
A major part of Panasonic’s US strategy will be to shrink the supply chain

Critical minerals mine & refining capacity will need to be established feed what will be a new Panasonic super-site

Cathode, anode, lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt, manganese on alert in USA and Canada
This is a big move for traditionally conservative Panasonic. Korean battery makers - LG and SK - have led this global battery arms race in the USA.
Read 10 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Jun 1
We’ve seen this before, we will see it again. Goldman Sachs: you can’t just add up all the #lithium mine level potential & make an oversupply call

The speciality chemicals world is more nuanced than iron ore

It’s why the world doesn’t rely investment banks for research any more
To make forecast calls especially for Nickel and Lithium at the moment should be regulated.

Much like our IOSCO price assessments.

There should be a min amount of expert work required to make such high profile calls that impact investors, esp the retail community.
Slapdash forecasts do a disservice to the all the work the professional publishing world conduct - including our competitors
Read 5 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Mar 30
When #EV OEMs need to become miners has been the Benchmark story of 2022. @benchmarkmin

What we mean by this is outlined in this thread:
Future EV demand is surging beyond the ability of the lithium ion battery supply chain to respond in full.
As we approach the end of the decade, the number of EVs that’s OEMs want to produce become impossible to make considering the critical battery raw material volumes in the pipeline … if all existing expansions and new mines make it, in most cases there still wont be enough
Read 14 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Mar 4
#BASF freezes new business in #Russia but commits to existing business which includes developing a ‘zero carbon’ nickel pipeline into Germany via Finland for lithium ion batteries and #EV reuters.com/article/ukrain…
European battery and EV makers need the more localised Nornickel - BASF nickel unless they want to rely more on Indonesia and China sources for the bulk of nickel needs.

And comes with its own ESG issues to deal with: tailings disposal, deforestation, carbon footprint.
More high quality battery ready nickel sources means more batteries and more electric vehicles.

It also means less ICE vehicles and less oil.

Note: Russia supplies 25% of Europe’s oil and 40% of Europe’s diesel.
Read 5 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Feb 27
#Russia’s nickel & Germany’s #cathode and auto #EV industry.

Nornickel + #BASF: An long term term partnership descends into an unholy alliance

As Russia attacks Ukraine, our industry’s eyes are fixed on @BASF and what it does next

And here’s why…

#UkraineUnderAttack
Russia’s Nornickel (Norilsk) supplies 20% of world’s class 1 nickel - the suitable supply for lithium ion batteries and #ElectricVehicles (and 7% of global nickel)

Most of this goes to China.

#UkraineUnderAttack
Germany was relying on expanded future supply of Russian #nickel as a key pillar in its battery and #EV expansion

This is via the partnership between Nornickel and German chemical / cathode maker, #BASF

#UkraineUnderAttack
Read 11 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Feb 24
#RussiaUkraineConflict - we are getting a lot of inquiries about Russia and critical minerals, esp for #ElectricVehicles & #batteries

A few @benchmarkmin facts:

#Nickel is on red alert.

Norilsk is the world’s largest class 1 nickel producer accounting for 20% of global supply
Norilsk overall accounts for 7% of all in nickel supply. But EV makers, auto OEMs and battery cell producers will terrified of losing 20% of a market with prices already at decade long highs.
China will not place real any sanctions on Russia and as a result ensure all #nickel continues to flow into its mainland and into Chinese made battery cells and EVs

Follow @GregMiller_BMI @CDMRawles for more
Read 8 tweets

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