Thread by @mercoglianos

1/The agreement brokered by Turkey between Russia and Ukraine to open up ports along the Gulf of #Odesa in the #BlackSea cannot work if Russia plans on attacking the ports in question.

There are many hurdles that need to be overcome for this to work.

https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1550817931059232769

2/First, the need for the grain is paramount. @unctad has made clear the vital importance of #grain, in particular #wheat, #sunflower, #corn & #barley for nations in Africa.

3/Myself and @johnkonrad was on @CavasShips Podcast to talk about this very topic last week.

defaeroreport.com/2022/07/15/cav…

4/Second hurdle to be faced is finding companies, ships and crews willing to sail into the #BlackSea, into a declared war zone. But perhaps the most challenging issue is insuring the ships against war risk.

gcaptain.com/ship-insurers-…

5/So, if #Russia halts their attacks, and ships can be found, next you have to clear ships sitting in the ports since February.

It is unclear how many of these ships even have crew remaining on board. Firing up ships that have sit for nearly five months will be a challenge.

6/Next, the mines laid by the Ukrainians, and those by the Russians will need to be cleared. This could takes weeks if not months depending on the availability of mine countermeasures assets.

google.com/amp/s/amp.theg…

7/Finally, the concern about floating and unswept mines, along with threats from Russian submarine, surface & air assets will require naval escorts/convoys. The options for these range from independent sailings (very unlikely) to full fledged convoys.

Sorry...bad link.

theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…

Russia and Ukraine Agree to Ship Grain from Odesa...And Then Russia Attacked Odesa

Less than 24 hours after the agreement, #Russia hit #Odesa, near the grain facilities.

What needs to be done?

Mines, Ships, Crews, Insurance, Convoys?

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