Thread by @chrisschmitz

A quick thread on key strategic elements of a possible #china #taiwan #usa conflict.
This aims at showing key facilities, areas of interest and a big picture and provide links where applicable, for those who want to dive into details.
Lets start with the overall picuture.

The western strategem in the pacific involves containment around island chains, acting as "unsinkable aircraft carriers and bases", with Taiwan at the core of the first chain.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Ch…

Countering this strategy is a key component of the chinese expansion in the south chinese sea.
For this, china has forcefully expanded tiny atolls in the Spratly and Paracel Islands into military strongholds, including literally creating land.

bbc.com/news/world-asi…

On this map, you can see the approximate reach of Radar installations (White) and Air-Defense Missle installations (Red) present on the Paracel and Spratly islands.

These Islands provide china with a very strong military reach within the South Chinese Sea.

This presence is supported heavily by military installations on Hainan. It is a heavily militarized Island, home to very significant, and countless, chinese military installations, including the Yulin Naval Base, home to an UNDERGROUND HARBOR!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yulin_Nav…

As China has countless facilities for Aviation and Military Assets, we only focus on the "crown jewels" in this thread.
Chinese Strategic Aviation "still" Flies a Tu-16 Derivative, called H-6. Despite the Tu-16 being a 50s design, it is a capable bomber.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_H-6

Anqing is the primary base for these bombers, notice the two long runways, and the tiny detail: both are connected to a mountain, that has entrances and underground facilities.

The main purpose of these bombers is threatening US Carrier Groups.

google.com/maps/@30.58723…

A second base, that could be of significant interest, is Luhe Airbase, supposed to be home to the mysterious new, and so far unseen, H-20 Stealth bomber.
@thedrive has a nice article on it.
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…

@thedrive To complete the chinese nuclear triad, one needs to look at the "nuclear missle fields", supporting over 100 ICBM, that china has constructed in the north-west of the country.

This article from FAS provides great detail and information
fas.org/blogs/security…

@thedrive The last, interesting detail regarding China is: They have practiced attacking US Carrier Groups in the open. They literally build "fake" Carriers in the desert, to try shooting them with their very novel and capable "ASBM" DF-21D.
More details here:
news.usni.org/2021/11/09/sec…

Now lets look at Taiwan, as potential target.
One could presume that any hostilities would begin with Matsu (or Kinmen) Islands.
Both are very close to the chinese Mainland, the assumption is, USA would not go over war with China over them:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matsu_Isl…

The second potential Island Group would be Kinmen, equially close to mainland as Matsu, but more populated and potentially better defended.
Depending on the ultimate goal, China could try to take one, or both.
Either way, I would not sleep well there.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinmen

A well suited place for any chinese landing would be the beaches of the Xinwu district. Taiwan is really rocky, and these are beaches well suited.

As both sides know this, any landing would be preceded by massive MLRS bombardment from Mainland.

google.com/maps/@24.99737…

A key facility for the defense of Taiwan are the Airports on the eastern side of the Island. The most important one is the massive base at Hualien.
You can only see parts of the base on the map, as most of the airbase is hidden in the mountains.

google.com/maps/@24.02273…

As every Airport and facility in Taiwan has a dual use capability, its defense will not depend on key facilities, but at its ability to fully mobilize its entire population within days under arms, and provide them with anti-tank and anti-air weapons.
Lets look at US assets.

Okinawa can be considered the key element of any US Assistance to Taiwan. This is why ANY involvement of USA will implicitly mean that China will have to attack Japan to avoid USAF stopping their attack.

Kadena AB can support 100s of planes.

google.de/maps/@26.33416…

Kadena can not only support 100s of planes, it also holds ammunition supplies to conduct combat operations for weeks without outside supply.
Take a look at the mountains near Kadena AB, they are literally 100s of ammunition bunkers.

google.de/maps/@26.36246…

If for whatever reason Kadena has an issue with the runway, no problem.
The US Marine Corps has a huge base a couple km away, Futenma, that can of course draw from the storages and facilities at Kadena.

These are just the US Facilities on Okinama.

google.de/maps/@26.25605…

The next piece of the puzzle is the green area on this map, the en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippin… .
This deepwater ocean would be home to the US Pacific Fleet in support of Taiwan.

If US supports Taiwan, China must succeed in "beating away" the US Pacific Fleet from here.

This is however, not the complete picture. We "pan" a bit to the east, and see in bright blue an island called "GUAM".
Guam is home to one of the largest Airbases in the World, even bigger than Kadena, and it sits on the second island chain.

Without taking out Guam, China has no chance of "winning" any battle in the Philippine Sea, as Anderson AFB in Guam itself can support an Air Force bigger than most countries on this planet.

google.com/maps/@13.60270…

As you can see, "just attacking Taiwan" would not work, hence the fear of an actual "Pacific WW3" is not without factual merit.

If you liked this thread, take a look at my (still largely correct) prediction of the russian offensive, from late March.

https://twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status/1508177160384794631

@threadreaderapp unroll