Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Aug 1 9 tweets 5 min read
The #Ukarinian regime does many things in its desperate fight to remain relevant & in power, but it is often quite predictable. This one I nailed on the head.

The order came all the way from #Zelensky. Forced evacuation of the rest (still UA-held) Donetsk.
"A government decision was made on the mandatory evacuation of the #Donetsk region" he said. Zelensky said hundreds of thousands of people remain in the #Donbas near the fighting and admitted that many refused to leave (they don't mind the Russians coming):
"Many refuse to leave but it still needs to be done, “If you have the opportunity, please talk to those who still remain in the combat zones in Donbas. Please convince them that it is necessary to leave." His motivations were not clear, we only got the absurd statement that:
"The more people leave [the] Donetsk region now, the fewer people the #Russian army will have time to kill,”. However he did say that those residents who would leave would be given compensation, an attempt to buy the loyalty that he does not naturally posses. These are hard times
in a place that isn't wealthy in the best of times, and money can be a big incentive. Who knows if & when they ever do receive any, & how much that may end up being. Separately, UA media quoted Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk trying to add some justification. She said the
evacuation had to take place before winter because there will not be gas for heating in the area. Many, including strong supporters of #Ukraine, were left confused by the call. John Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine said "I don't know why Zelensky issued the call..".
Mr. @JohnEdHerbst, if you are saying you don't know as part of your duties, that is one thing, but if you truly don't know then please refer to the quoted thread for what motivates the UA move. Mr. Herbst is Senior Director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council. Starting
2016, one of the Atlantic Council's largest donor for several years was #Burisma Holdings, of #HunterBiden fame. Now it remains to be seen what force will be used by the Ukrainian state to remove the residents of the Donbas, and if we will be able to see any evidence of it.
Exactly as predicted, UA went from keeping populations at the front by force, to now evacuating them by force. Ukraine has decided that if it cannot keep jurisdiction and control over #Russian speaking areas of eastern #Ukraine, it will at least keep them over their residents.

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More from @ZimermanErik

Aug 1
There is no doubt that you will find me finding fault with the #Ukrainian regime much more often than with Russia, but I am saddened at what likely was a deliberate strike against Oleksiy Vadaturskyi. Mr. Vadaturskyi was one UA's richest men (a "grain oligarch"), a nationalist
and pro-European. This would put him at odds with Russia politically, but from the limited knowledge I have on the man, he was a formidable & somewhat principled one. Unlike most oligarchs who rose to riches by squabbling for the assets of the state as it privatized by political
infighting Mr. Vadaturskyi was somewhat of a self-made man. From a farming family around Nikolaev, he created Nibulon (w Hungarian & London partners) to develop and profit from UA's agricultural export potential. In 1998 Nibulon received a direct loan of $5 million USD from
Read 18 tweets
Jul 28
#Ukraine has repeatedly hit the #Antonivskiy bridge across the Dnieper river in the #Kherson area. This started about July 19 & yesterday saw some of the heaviest strikes, reportedly by HIMARS. The bridge seems to be structurally intact, though closed due to surface damage.
#Ukraine is putting at risk many bridges and dams across the Dnieper. Besides the 3 around Kherson (1 road, 1 rail & 1 road & rail), they are all in UA hands and the entire Ukrainian army in the east depends on them for even the limited supply they are receiving now. We discussed
previously why these bridges had not yet been targeted.

There was a tacit understanding between the parties not to try to strike at these bridges and dams. In preparation for now more modest UA aims, to regain Kherson and the west bank of the river,
Read 24 tweets
Jul 26
The thread being long enough, could not fit all I would have wished. But let me add a last and important point. After the release of this information, we learned of two high level dismissals in the Ukrainian government. #Zelensky fired the First Deputy Secretary of the National
Security and Defense Council Ruslan Demchenko. As part of the Council, which among other tasks coordinates security matters and advises the president, he very well may have been involved in clandestine matters such as this operation. He also worked as deputy minister of foreign
affairs. Perhaps more tellingly Zelensky also fired the commander of Special Operations Forces (SSO), Hryhoriy Halahan. Until 2016 these units were under the Chief Directorate of Intelligence (HUR / GUR), and so are highly correlated with this kind of operation. The SSO includes
Read 14 tweets
Jul 26
Undoubtedly some very interesting developments here. In the immediate aftermath, @bellingcat & its lead #Russia investigator @christogrozev began damage control regarding the announcement. Mr. Grozev claimed that he was not involved in the operation (as RU sources asserted) but
simply had a front-row seat as a film-maker (for a documentary). He also denied that the Ukrainian operation was a failure or a Russian coup. He portrays it as a mutual attempt at playing the other side, in which the UA came out on top and RU FSB blundered & revealed important
information.
(His thread ), calling it a "blunder for the FSB, disclosing unintentionally identities of dozens of counter intel officers, their methods of operation, and their undercover assets.".
Read 37 tweets
Jul 25
Reports emerging that #Ukraine, apparently believing itself to be 1960's Israel, and #Russia 1960's Iraq, (not to mention Russian pilots to be Christian Assyrians in Iraq), tried to recruit #Russian pilots to defect with their planes (ie SU-24 / 34). The failed UA intelligence
operation was busted and "flipped" by a successful Russian FSB counter-intelligence operation. The UA intelligence agents were reportedly lured to identify themselves, other trusted sources, and UA anti-aircraft systems details & positions. A defecting pilot for example would
reasonably need to know many such details in order to fly over Ukrainian territory with a reasonable assurance of not being shot down and killed. This was a creative idea, one I could see coming form the likes of #Arestovych or other Ukrainian well read in history, specifically,
Read 7 tweets
Jul 22
Note on a predicted #Ukrainian strategy change. Early on the war, when the public was not accustomed to it, the media got great mileage out of every building that was fired on, assuming all are war crimes. As I discussed in more detail then, people are civilians (or not),
and not buildings. If a defender chooses to defend a city (& an attacker to try to capture it), there will be a fight in the city. Cities are not filled with "designated urban combat buildings", just buildings, and that is where the fighting will take place. Given this reporting
eager to call all events "war crimes" and their intention always "genocide", #Ukraine, whose strategy is always shaped & driven by Western perception, did everything it could to stop civilian evacuations from front line cities. They rationalized that it was the patriotic duty of
Read 19 tweets

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