Thread by @JJSchroden

As I think about the strike on #alQaeda’s Zawahiri, we know what the “finish” portion looked like: a drone strike in Kabul. What about the “find & fix” portions though? 1/n

We don’t *know* anything about that yet, though surely the Biden admin will release details to keep this in the news cycle as the midterms approach, so we’ll learn more. Still possible to speculate on the possibilities now, though. 2/n

First they had to *find* Zawahiri. Analysts like @asfandyarmir have argued for a while that he was likely in #Afghanistan somewhere. And there have been steady reports from Afghans of US drones flying over AFG post-withdrawal, to include over Kabul. 3/n

So the US was undoubtedly using drones to listen/look for him. But unless they got a lock on a digital device being used by Zawahiri or someone close to him, would’ve been hard to pinpoint him that way. Much more likely that source(s) on the ground found him. 4/n

Who might those be? Could be disgruntled #Taliban members or those in need of $$. Could be intel sources from US partners (eg #Pakistan as @RupertStone83 has suggested). Could even be unwitting sources, such as TB or others who knew he was there & didn’t stay quiet. 5/n

Kabul has lots of eyes and ears…quite possible that someone got wind of his presence and used that information to their advantage. 6/n

Similar considerations apply on the *fix* aspect of the targeting cycle. US had to not just know his location, but guarantee that he’d be there. Again, unless the US had a lock on a device with Zawahiri, a human source seems more likely. 7/n

Reinforcing that for me is how long it took the US to verify/announce that it was Zawahiri. If they had confirmation yesterday, they’d have said so. Which means they didn’t confirm it via the drone overhead right away. 8/n

Possible they confirmed it via drone surveillance of #Taliban or #alQaeda chatter over the past day, though that could also have been picked up via cyber or human sources. 9/n

Regardless, we’re now onto the “exploit and analyze” phases of the targeting cycle. Which means more information (& hopefully, more successes against #alQaeda) should be forthcoming. 10/10

More info continues to come out. Looks like the @CIA had a team of some kind on the ground? Makes me wonder how they got there, though this report says planning was underway for past six months…that’s a lot of time to infiltrate a ground team

https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1554234697382862848

.@cnn reporting that Zawahiri was spotted on a balcony(!) of his compound which led to launch of two Hellfire missiles. And that they’d been fixing his location for a week before the strike. And that his family moved into the villa first, joined by Zawahiri later.