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Aug 2 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
ISW assesses that Russian forces were responsible for the July 28 attack on the Olenivka prison that killed 53 Ukrainian POWs.
Russian forces are reportedly moving more troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukraine.
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
The Russian withdrawal of some troops from northern #Donetsk Oblast will deprive the #Slovyansk effort of necessary combat power in the same way that Russian forces neglected the #Zaporizhia and #Kherson Oblasts fronts during offensive operations in #Luhansk Oblast. /2
The withdrawal will likely create an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to launch a counteroffensive on the #Izyum axis, just as the Russian capture of #Luhansk Oblast allowed #Ukraine to set conditions for a counteroffensive in #Kherson Oblast. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
The Russian redeployment of troops to #Zaporizhia Oblast also suggests that Ukrainian counteroffensives are not confined to #Kherson Oblast and will likely take place throughout the southern axis. /4
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Jul 28
July 27 Assessment Highlight:

The #Kremlin continues to show a preference for some ethnic groups over others during the Russian invasion of #Ukraine, which may spark ethnic unrest in #Russia. /1

isw.pub/RusCampaignJul…
Ukrainian Deputy Justice Minister Olena Vysotska said that the Kremlin prioritizes returning Chechen fighters in prisoner exchanges but is not as interested in exchanging personnel from the Buryatia Republic or the Far East. /2
Vysotska added that the Kremlin shows almost no consideration for the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) prisoners of war. /3
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 28
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

The Mari El Republic north of Kazan sent two volunteer battalions to train and is forming a third battalion to deploy to #Ukraine.
Isw.pub/RusCampaignJul…
The Mari El Republic (an ethnic republic established for the indigenous Mari people and situated north of Kazan) formed and deployed two volunteer battalions named “Iden” and “Poltysh” to training grounds on July 27 and is currently forming a third battalion named “Akpatr. /2
Yoshkar-Ola City Administration announced the recruitment for the battalions on May 30 for any man that has completed nine grades of schooling (middle school). /3
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 28
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces may have launched a localized counterattack southwest of #Izyum, while Russian forces attacked settlements east of #Siversk and northeast and southeast of #Bakhmut.
Isw.pub/RusCampaignJul…
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian reconnaissance group in Pasika (approximately 18 km southeast of Izyum) that attempted to “expose Ukrainian positions” in the settlement on July 27. /2
There is no visual confirmation of Ukrainian forces operating in Pasika as of this publication and ISW is unable to verify this report. ISW assessed that Russian forces control Pasika based on geolocated footage of Russian forces advancing south via Bohorodychne in mid-July. /3
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 28
#Russian forces currently appear able to sustain only 2 significant offensive operations in #Ukraine, both in #Donetsk Oblast; the Russian offensive remains likely to culminate before seizing additional significant population centers.

Read the latest: isw.pub/RusCampaignJul…
These operations have focused on advances in the Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, direction from Verkhnokamianka and Bilohorivka, and in the Bakhmut direction from the areas of Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant since the end of the operational pause on July 16. /2
Russian forces have committed enough resources to conduct near-daily ground assaults and to seize territory on these two axes but have been unable to sustain a similar offensive operational tempo or to make similar territorial gains elsewhere in Ukraine. /3
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 26
Geolocated social media footage from July 25 shows that troops of the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC) have advanced into Novoluhanske. Russian and Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces are also taking control of the territory of the Vuhledar Power Plant. /1
Russian Telegram channels began reporting on Russian attempts to advance on Novoluhanske as early as May 25, which means that Russian troops have been unsuccessfully attacking this single location for two months. /2
Regardless, the capture of Novoluhanske and the Vuhledar Power Plant will not generate an advantageous salient along which Russian troops will be able to advance northwards towards Bakhmut. /3
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 26
Southern Axis Update Thread:

#Russian forces continued to fortify their positions in #Zaporizhia and #Kherson Oblasts in preparations for #Ukrainian counteroffensives. 1/6
isw.pub/RusCampaignJul…
Southern Axis Update Thread:

#Russian forces also continued to launch air, missile, and artillery strikes along the #Kherson Oblast administrative border, #Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and #Mykolaiv City on July 25. 2/6
isw.pub/RusCampaignJul…
Southern Axis Update Thread:

#Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike #Russian strongholds along the Southern Axis. 3/6
isw.pub/RusCampaignJul…
Read 6 tweets

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