Provisional single-view geolocation of explosion at #Russian Navy Saki air base, Crimea, supports suggestion that at least one of the ammunition storage areas has explosions
Caveats apply, hope better efforts of geolocation can confirm/disprove
Calm before the storm, satellite image from 08:47 UTC today
#Chinese missile destroyer operating East of #Taiwan this morning. Likely Type-055 Renhai class, described as a cruiser
ID not 100% but agreed probable among multiple experienced #OSINT analysts watching situation
The #Chinese type-055 can carry a range of missiles including a new hypersonic missile provisionally identified as the YJ-21. See hisutton.com/Chinese-Hypers…
Quick thread on #Chinese submarine capabilities right now. Excuse typos
First up. China has been operating nuclear powered attack submarines, of its own design, since 1970s. Today the main type is the Type-09III (aka 093) SHANG Class (hisutton.com/Chinese-Navy-T…)
2. These attack subs (SSNs) are generally better than many people would expect. We have seen the steady implementation of newer technologies such as towed sonar arrays and anechoic coatings.
But they are relatively few in number.
3. They are based in South China Sea, south of Taiwan. Generally their role is protecting the nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) but they would be expected to play a role in any conflict
#Russia has withdrawn from Snake Island. This is important, and it is a significant victory for #Ukraine.
Why...
Thread. Usual caveats. Alternative analysis welcome
First, this is a surprise. I have not seen anyone predicting this.
There is only one way to see it, as a set-back for Russia
The island is strategically important, so giving it up cannot have been an easy decision.
Russian Navy cruiser capturing the island on first day of war:
As well as providing surveillance, the rock would be part of territorial claims, or sea etc. Whoever holds it going into a political solution has an advantage
Based on multiple sources building up over several days, it appears highly likely that the #Russian Pantsir air defense systems we see in the first photograph, being delivered to Snake Island, has since itself been destroyed by #Ukraine