Russian leadership and the Russian nationalist information space are falsely framing recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military assets in #Crimea as acts of terrorism to shift the information narrative away from Russian violations of international law. 🧵isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
#Russian sources on August 17 inaccurately described the recent #Ukrainian strikes on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, an ammunition depot, and the #Saki Airbase in Russian-occupied #Crimea as acts of terrorism. /2
The Russian-appointed head of occupied #Crimea claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in Crimea had neutralized cells of the Hizb ut-Tahrir organization & accused the Ukrainian government of coordinating Hizb ut-Tahrir's operations without providing evidence. /3
The Hizb ut-Tahrir organization is an Islamist fundamentalist political group that has historically been active in Central Asia and in Crimea amongst the Crimean Tatar community and is banned in Russia in Dzhankoi and Yalta. /4
Russian officials will likely increasingly link Ukrainian partisan attacks against occupied territories with operations conducted by organizations affiliated with Islamist extremism to alienate the Ukrainian partisan movement from the international community... /5
...and, specifically, undermine #Ukraine’s calls to officially designate #Russia as a state-sponsor of terrorism. /6
In reality, partisan attacks against legitimate Russian military targets fall well within the purview of the legal use of force and are not acts of terrorism, nor is there any evidence to suggest that Islamist extremists conducted these attacks. /7 isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
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NEW: Recent #Ukrainian strikes on #Russian military and transportation infrastructure in #Crimea and #Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas. Read the latest: isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Reports from August 18 about Ukrainian strikes in #Crimea are affecting the Russian information space despite the fact that these reports were likely overblown. /2 isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Available open-source evidence indicates that Ukrainian forces did not conduct a successful kinetic attack against either the Stary Oskol Air Base in Belgorod or Belbek Air Base in #Crimea on August 18. There is no visual evidence of damage to either air base of as August 19. /3
New: There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in #Ukraine today for the first time since July 6.
Russian officials may be setting information conditions to blame Ukraine for a false flag attack at the #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Meanwhile, Russian sources reported explosions across #Crimea—possibly caused by Russian air defenses, Ukrainian reconnaissance, or a Ukrainian attack.
It is unclear at the time of publication whether the reported explosions in #Crimea are due to #Ukrainian attacks or reconnaissance, poor Russian handling of military equipment, successful #Russian air defenses...
#Russian forces are likely preparing to defend their ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the #Melitopol-Tokmak-Berdyansk triangle by mining settlements on the eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast frontline. /1 isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully conducted a platoon-size assault and a reconnaissance-in-force operation near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the #Inhulets River. /2
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian strongholds and ammunition warehouses in northwestern and northern #Kherson Oblast on August 17. /3 isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
New: Attacks on #Russian positions in and around #Crimea are likely part of a coherent #Ukrainian counter-offensive to regain control of the west bank of the #Dnipro River.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in #Crimea on August 16, specifically a Russian ammunition depot and a transformer substation in Dzhankoiskyi District and an airfield near Hvardiiske, Crimea. /2
#Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) from #Crimea directly support Russian forces in mainland #Ukraine including those in western #Kherson Oblast. /3
.@TheStudyofWar assessed yesterday that #Russian and proxy troops in #Ukraine are operating in roughly six force groupings. We take a closer look at their likely composition in the following🧵 isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Group 1: Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast
Russian force composition around Kharkiv City is at least in part composed of Western Military District (WMD) units. /2
The Ukrainian General Staff has identified that Russian forces concentrated WMD units around Kharkiv City and in border areas of Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk Oblasts (northeast of the city). /3
NEW: #Russian and proxy troops in #Ukraine are likely operating in 6 force groupings oriented on Kharkiv City & NE Kharkiv Oblast; along the Izyum-Slovyansk line; the Siversk-Lysychansk area; Bakhmut; the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area; and Southern Ukraine. isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
The #Kharkiv City and #Siversk-Lysychansk groups are likely built around cores drawn from the Western and Central Military Districts respectively. The #Izyum-#Slovyansk axis is increasingly manned by recently formed volunteer battalions that likely have very low combat power. /2
#Wagner Group private military company (PMC) soldiers are in the lead around #Bakhmut, while forces drawn from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) predominate in the #Avdiivka-#Donetsk City area. /3