Thread by @RonStoeferle

Just finished studying the July 2022 report "The Future of Copper":

cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0722/T…

Here are some highlights:

It's predicting a 10 million mt shortfall in #copper supply by 2035, under its baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of current trends in the capacity utilization of mines and recycling of recovered copper.

Copper—the “metal of electrification”—is essential to all energy transition plans. But the potential supply-demand gap is expected to be very large as the transition proceeds. Substitution and recycling will not be enough to meet the demands of electric vehicles (EVs),..

...power infrastructure, and renewable generation. Unless massive new supply comes online in a timely
way, the goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach.

The chronic gap between worldwide copper supply and demand projected to begin in the middle
of this decade will have serious consequences across the global economy and will affect the
timing of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050.

Under the Rocky Road Scenario, the US will have to import 67%—that is twothirds— of its refined copper demand by 2035. Even in the High Ambition Scenario, the US will still need to import 57% of the refined copper during the years of highest energy transitionrelated copper demand

The complexity of permitting mines in the United States is reinforced by the long lead times
also required elsewhere around the world. Multidimensional challenges make the development
of mines a generational endeavor, spanning decades and requiring hundreds of billions of
dollars

Projects under development today would likely not be sufficient to offset the projected shortfalls in copper supply, even if their permitting and construction were accelerated."

#copper #commodities #electrification #EV #ESG

@BurggrabenH @TaviCosta @kevinmuir @GianniKov