Just finished studying the July 2022 report "The Future of Copper":

cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0722/T…

Here are some highlights:
It's predicting a 10 million mt shortfall in #copper supply by 2035, under its baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of current trends in the capacity utilization of mines and recycling of recovered copper.
Copper—the “metal of electrification”—is essential to all energy transition plans. But the potential supply-demand gap is expected to be very large as the transition proceeds. Substitution and recycling will not be enough to meet the demands of electric vehicles (EVs),..
...power infrastructure, and renewable generation. Unless massive new supply comes online in a timely
way, the goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach.
The chronic gap between worldwide copper supply and demand projected to begin in the middle
of this decade will have serious consequences across the global economy and will affect the
timing of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050.
Under the Rocky Road Scenario, the US will have to import 67%—that is twothirds— of its refined copper demand by 2035. Even in the High Ambition Scenario, the US will still need to import 57% of the refined copper during the years of highest energy transitionrelated copper demand
The complexity of permitting mines in the United States is reinforced by the long lead times
also required elsewhere around the world. Multidimensional challenges make the development
of mines a generational endeavor, spanning decades and requiring hundreds of billions of
dollars
Projects under development today would likely not be sufficient to offset the projected shortfalls in copper supply, even if their permitting and construction were accelerated."

#copper #commodities #electrification #EV #ESG

@BurggrabenH @TaviCosta @kevinmuir @GianniKov

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More from @RonStoeferle

Aug 23
This must be telepathy...Last night I watched "Trainwreck: Woodstock 99" () and then I read that @LukeGromen compares Powell to Limp Bizkits' Fred Durst at Woodstock99:
"For the uninitiated, in 1999, concert planners hosted 250,000+ concertgoers for a 3-day music festival on a closed US Air Force base in Rome, NY. Between the near-100-degree temperatures, the complete lack of shade (it was an airstrip), the exorbitant prices for tickets and..
concessions (including water), wanton drug and alcohol use, insufficient bathrooms, showers, fresh water, sleep, and woefully inadequate security, the conditions were ripe for a riot...
Read 11 tweets
Aug 9
I'm reading everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out for many years...His latest piece "War and Interest Rates" (August 1st) was a true masterpiece...Here are some highlights in a #thread🧵:
War is inflationary

....Wars come in many different shapes and forms. There are hot wars, cold wars, and what @DrPippaM calls hot wars in cold places – cyberspace, space, and deep underwater (see here). ...

Inflation did not start with the hot war in Ukraine…
the low inflation world stood on three pillars:
first, cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S.; second, cheap goods from China raising living standards amid stagnant wages; third, cheap Russian gas powering German industry and the EU more broadly.
Read 18 tweets
Aug 9
Firms' Inflation Expectations: Not Unanchored, but Perhaps Unsettled?

Interesting read by the #FederalReserveAtlanta:

atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblo…
"Said another way, the current bout of high inflation is unusual in many different ways, and how it will play out remains fraught with uncertainty. Firms' short- and long-run expectations have risen sharply, and longer-run expectations show a clear rise in the average firm's...
probability distribution, to the extent that nearly one-third of the weight is being assigned to anticipated cost increases greater than 5 percent. So as we continue to delve further into these expectations and monitor upcoming developments,...
Read 4 tweets
Apr 29
US Yield Curve Control ahead?

The Federal Reserve conveniently provided itself with the legitimation for future yield curve control:
„The period 1942-47 provides some evidence that the Federal Reserve can lower long-term rates by committing to keeping short-term rates low. The brief period from 1947 to 1948 may also...
provide additional evidence that long rates can be reduced by direct interventions in the market for long-term Treasuries.“ Source: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 14
As the first rate hike of this new (imho very short) rate hike cycle is getting closer, let's have a look at the performance of the #USD, #commodities and #gold before and after the first hike:
Will the #USD rally? Not necessarily..

The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....
What about #commodities? Consensus would tell us that raising rates will cause commodities to sell off.

Not really. ..The first rate hike proved to be close to the bottom for the 2015 cycle, and all cycles were higher a couple of months out...
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16, 2020
Some very random thoughts on most recent developments here in Austria and in financial markets...
1. I am not scared of #COVIDー19 but rather the disastrous consequences for businesses, capital markets and employees...
2. Although monetary and fiscal stimulus will be huge, it won’t be enough.... we'll soon see who has been swimming naked...People do not see the consequences for illiquid investments like VC, real estate, art,...yet! VaR risk models will come back and hit us like boomerangs.
Read 18 tweets

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