First, let's do some TA. tradingview.com/x/lmjBtqFy/ - we have a macro inverted head and shoulders on the quarterly DXY. So....that's possibly a year, two years? More? Not going to be bullish for crypto, for sure.
Next, we have 3 month BTC - which is just starting to turn for the first time in a long time. Yep....tradingview.com/x/s7Z7H7ok/
Catch is, that's bitstamp for reasons of macro viewing, so let's look at volume from #Binance, who leads the market. tradingview.com/x/aw3oea96/
This is not a happy 3 month, even with a month to go there is nothing that would not confirm further down short of BTC closing September above 33k.
Meanwhile, BTC.D continues to bleed. A reminder of course, that so far this is letting alts run more than anything, as people are praying for alts more than #BTC. Which is okay so long as you ignore what's likely to happen.tradingview.com/x/oAC3WKXC/
Should BTC.D correct as I have warned many, many many times - it would be heading towards either the end of this market cycle or the end of the crypto #bubble, as a whole. Time will tell how far the doom goes.
Meanwhile, what does Binance want? They want you to be their exit liquidity.
This is "please buy the following from us so we can exit".
On the flip side, a reminder that the Tornadocash scenario is messy (eff.org/deeplinks/2022… from EFF on the free speech issues), but that it wouldn't be if it weren't for as acknowledged - that both North Korea and Russia are involved.
This is where people get silly and claim new world order, as well. Russia and Iran of course are happy to get Cryptocurrency, especially through Tornadocash. cointelegraph.com/news/russian-p…
Do I expect that to work out for them? lol, no. washingtonpost.com/business/2022/… This is why they want you to be exit liquidity - because nobody wants to be. And why they're trying to turn to third world countries for crypto adoption.
Everything first looks like consolidation. That's the TLDR of today, overall. Things look very, very mixed. We are however, looking at Contango - and that implies bearishness. IE: spot is below futures.
Anyway though, let's get to looking at the market, shall we? Real ugly 1d pin bar that hints at lower, explicitly. tradingview.com/x/FB6FnlYx/
Well, what about 1 week? Maybe we'll see some upwards movement. tradingview.com/x/u98YGhdU/ Not guaranteed, but a distinct maybe and probably short term when you consider we're talking about BTC at 20k in a macro bearish market.
So, what do we have? We have #short#squeezes on thin air. I had suspicion of #bear#traps, and well.....yeah. Can't exactly say I'm surprised.
At this time, weekly charts are by and large unchanged. tradingview.com/x/J8cJYTLY/ - bearish, see ya later. So far. Obviously this #fakeout back and forth stuff when we're at a pivot leaves me at a little bit of indecision.
Daily charts also say LOL, because we're literally sitting on top of a horizontal support going way back, and yet...we already went under it once and for sure did not strongly bounce off it. Usually when this occurs, market goes down. tradingview.com/x/2q3KlQ0m/
Sunday 8/28 analysis. An obvious setup for Monday is coming. BTC is hovering at/around the $20k mark, which means consolidation for the time being. It's clear that BTC is ready to follow the SPY for the new week.
For those that have been following what I'm doing, it's clear that doesn't mean bullish. tradingview.com/x/UXUy5E0Q/ BTC can't even make it over tiny MA's at this time, and top of MA resistance on short term is $21.6k to continue downtrend.
1/ Macro bearish — it’s worse than I expected. - Cryptocurrency Market/Bitcoin analysis 8/27.
Turns out, things are more bleak than I expected. I just needed to zoom out enough to see it. One of the two I see is the end of a 5 year, macro bull trend in Bitcoin.
2/ Yep, everyone says crypto moves fast, well….guess what. Surprise! Macro trend is waiting for ya. Oh, and MT GOX release is tomorrow. see that volume trend? tradingview.com/x/e4SCMGkG/ This basically implies that we have yet to correct.
3/ from 2018, which fits with one potential thesis that we will see sub-2018 lows. Yep, that under $4k a few folks have mentioned, it may be coming. What with BTC hovering around 20k ready to drop, and imminent global market turning mega bearish.