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Sep 3 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Very interesting: Photograph surfaces from #Iran showing three of #Al_Qaeda's most important leaders: Sayf al-Adel, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, and Abu al-Khayr al-Masri. Picture must be from before 2015, when Abu al-Khayr left for Syria. Doesn't look much like house arrest, does it? ImageImage
#pt: From 2018: "Examining Iran's Long Relationship with Al-Qaeda" kyleorton.co.uk/2018/10/26/exa…
#pt: #Al_Qaeda leader Abdullah Rajab Abdurrahman (Abu al-Khayr al-Masri) allegedly worked on fissile material while he was in #Iran. After Abu al-Khayr left in 2015, he went to #Syria, where, in 2017, he became the first kill of the US R9X ("ninja bomb"). kyleorton.co.uk/2017/02/27/al-…
Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah (Abu Muhammad al-Masri), one of #Al_Qaeda's most senior leaders for a very long time, was killed in #Iran in August 2020, on the anniversary of the East African Embassy bombings, by #Israel. eeradicalization.com/death-and-cons…

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More from @KyleWOrton

Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 5
Thread: 5 September 2022: Day 194 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's "main effort in #Ukraine almost certainly remains its Donbas offensive", rather than reinforcing against the counter-offensive in Kherson. Moscow has had "the most success" in Donetsk recently, but it is still advancing only 0.5 miles per week. Image
Horseshoe theory in action: "Progressive International" leader supporting the nationalist protests in #Czechia and their #Russia-friendly demands to cease support to #Ukraine and restore economic relations with Moscow. Image
Read 15 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 4
Thread: 4 September 2022: Day 193 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia continues to suffer "combat fatigue and high casualties" in #Ukraine, leading to low morale and "discipline issues". Problems with pay is a big issue for the Russian Army, as well as lacking basics like food, arms, and even uniforms. Image
Great map by @bradyafr of #Ukraine's use of HIMARS to ravage #Russia's logistics system.
Read 28 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 3
Thread: 3 September 2022: Day 192 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine's "offensive operations" around #Russian-occupied Kherson advance "on a broad front". The operation has "limited immediate objectives", but exploits Russia's weaknesses, and forces Moscow into a choice over deployment of its stretched forces. Image
Essentially an "Honest Trailers" version of a Russian recruitment video.
Read 36 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Aug 22
Thread: 22 August 2022: Day 180 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update focuses on the problems #Russia is having mobilising and motivating its "auxiliary forces", i.e. the #Ukrainians in the occupied territories like the Donbas. Moscow is trying terror and inducement (money), but the forces remain unreliable for offensives.
Thread on the "Wagner" unit, an instrument of #Russia's state, often wrongly referred to as a "mercenary" outfit.
Read 36 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Aug 21
Thread: 21 August 2022: Day 179 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
To follow up on the assassination of Aleksandr Dugin's daughter last night: the balance of probability for an assassination in Moscow is always the Russian FSB, possibly with the involvement of organised crime, not the Ukrainian SBU.
#pt: It is not *impossible* to construct a motive for the Ukrainian SBU trying to assassinate Dugin, but the SBU knows what apparently most Westerners do not: that Dugin is not a domestic power player, politically or ideologically, in the Kremlin.
Read 20 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Aug 20
Thread: 20 August 2022: Day 178 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "only minimal changes" along the front line in the Donbas over "the last week", after some minor #Russian advances in early August. #Ukraine moving on Kherson, increasingly frequent strikes behind the lines in the south are "stressing Russian logistics".
Credit to #France's President Macron for this: strongly preparing the French population for a rough winter, necessary to defend their security and values.
Read 38 tweets

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