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Sep 5 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Global Macro Review
September 5, 2022

Hello Labor Day ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ!
Other than the $USD, very little that was in the green long side last week. This morning, commodities are bouncing but equities โ†˜๏ธ

Letโ€™s review the week and the real-time ๐Ÿงฎ!

๐Ÿงต
Asia ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ last week with $HSI -3.55%, $NIKK -3.45%, and $KOSPI -2.9%.

Today โ†”๏ธ
$NIKK 27620 -0.1%
$SSEC 3200 +0.4%
$TWII 14661 -0.1%
$HSI 2404 -0.25%
$IDX 7232 +0.75%

$ASX 6852 +0.35%

$BSE 59209 +0.7%

Chart: $NIKK flipped to neutral Trend (T) -0.4% over the past 3 months
Unambiguously ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ โ†˜๏ธ this morning, Europe was โ†”๏ธ last week with $DAX + 0.44% and $CAC -1.7%

$DAX 12640 -3.15%
$FTSE 7200 -1.1%
$CAC 6031 -2.2%
$AEX 666 -1.9%
$IDEX 7778 -1.95%
$MIB 21327 -2.7%
$SMI 10704 -1.7%
$MOEX 2457 -0.6%

$VSTOXX 28.96 ๐Ÿ”บ

Chart: $DAX bye higher low ๐Ÿ’ฃ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ equities ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ last week with $SPX -3.3% and $COMPQ -4.2%

Futures โ†”๏ธ
$ES 3926 +0.05%
$NQ 12078 -0.15%
$RTY 1804 -0.3%

$VIX 26.74 ๐Ÿ”บ

Chart: $IWM -4.7% small caps and now -19.05% YTD
Metals ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”จ'd last week with $GOLD -1.5% and $COPPER -7.85% ๐Ÿฉธ

Today ๐Ÿ€
$GOLD 1724 +0.1%
$SILVER 18.04 +0.9%
$COPPER 3.437 +0.7%
$PLAT 824 +0.7%
$PALL 2032 +0.3%
$ALI 2304 +0.2%
$ZINC 3177 +1.65%

Chart: Dr. $COPPER is ๐Ÿค’ -23.7% (T) and -23.55% YTD
Hydrocarbons ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ last week with $WTIC -6.65%, $GASO -8.2%, and $NATGAS -5.3%

Today ๐Ÿ€โ†—๏ธ
$WTIC 89.16 +2.65%
$BRENT 95.66 +2.85%
$GASO 2.49 +1.25%
$NATGAS 8.892 +1.15%

$OVX 53.90

Chart: $GASO โ›ฝ๏ธ is -42% over the past 3 months, compliments of Uncle Joe and #SPR release
While ๐Ÿป Trend (T), grains hung in there last week

$WHEAT 811 +0.7% (w), -22.0% (T)
$CORN 666 +0.25% (w), -8.45% (T)
$SUGAR 18.2 -1.6% (w), -5.7% (T)
$SOYB -2.8% (w), -16.35% (T)

Chart: $COFFEE โ˜•๏ธ -3.9% (w), -1.3% (T)
With ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ removal underway, the $USD ๐Ÿ’ชโ†—๏ธ +0.7% and trading โ†—๏ธ this morning

$EUR 0.991 -0.4%
$GBP 1.1487 -0.18%
$AUD 0.678 -0.44%
$USD 110.00 +0.45%
$USDJPY 140.49 +0.2%
$USDCHF 0.9833 +0.3%
$USDCAD 1.316 +0.25%
$USDCNH 6.953 +0.5% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

Chart: ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง ๐Ÿ’ท -1.95% (w) -14.9% YTD ๐Ÿ’ฃ๐Ÿ’ฅ
#Bitcoin traded -1.4% and #cryptocurrencies are trading โ†˜๏ธ this morning

$BTC 19779 -1.1%
$ETH 1565 -0.85%

Chart: #Bitcoin is clinging to 20,000 but has downside to 18,400 - today!
UST yields โ†—๏ธ across the curve
10/2s to -20.1 BPS ๐Ÿป #steepening

MOVE 120.72 ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿ›—

Chart: $TLT -3.0% (w), -5.0% (T), -25.6% YTD
While economic signals may not be 100% clear, market signals are unambiguous - #Quad4 #deflation is in full swing ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ๐Ÿ’ฃ๐Ÿ’ฅ

Stay long the weapons of choice - the $USD ๐Ÿ’ต and $WTIC ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธas a hedge.

Cash ๐Ÿ’ธ is a position

โš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ and have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ week!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Aug 30
Hello Turnaround Tuesday!

This equity market keeps giving you opportunities to reduce exposure long side and to add ๐Ÿฉณ

Kashkari be damned!

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia is the mirror image of yesterday ๐Ÿชž
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ตโ†—๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 28196 +1.15%
$SSEC 3227 -0.4%
$TWII 14954 +0.2%
$HSI 19910 -0.55%
$KOSPI 2451 +1.0%
$IDX 7159 +0.4%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 6998 +0.45%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 59150 +2.05% โฌ…๏ธ โ™‰๏ธ
Europe โ†—๏ธ at the open

$DAX 13080 +1.45%
$FTSE 7465 +0.5%
$CAC 6390 +1.1%
$AEX 706 +1.15%
$IBEX 8071 +1.0%
$MIB 22112 +1.25%
$SMI 10976 +0.75%
$MOEX 2310 +0.6% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 27.22 ๐Ÿ”ป

$DAX range = 12679 - 13503 ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets
Aug 29
Hello Monday and the resumption of primary trend!

$USD โ†—๏ธ
$TNX โ†—๏ธ
$WTIC โ†—๏ธ
$ES โ†˜๏ธ
$GOLD โ†˜๏ธ
#Bitcoin โ†˜๏ธ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia, ex-China, โ†˜๏ธ โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 27879 -2.65%
$SSEC 3241 +0.15% โฌ…๏ธ
$TWII 14926 -2.3%
$HSI 2427 -2.2%
$KOSPI 2427 -2.2%
$IDX 7108 -0.4%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6955 -1.95%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 58047 -1.35%
Europe โ†˜๏ธ at the open

$DAX 12803 -1.3%
$FTSE 7427 -0.7%
$CAC 6192 -1.3%
$AEX 696 -1.3%
$IBEX 7964 -1.25%
$MIB 21691 -0.95%
$SMI 10913 -0.25%
$MOEX 2290 +0.95% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 28.87 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 12758 - 13533 ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets
Aug 28
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

1/7 ๐Ÿงต

Global Macro Review 08/28/2022

What a difference a week and an 8-minute JH speech make.

Trend indicators green into #OPEX, only to have JPOW reiterate, "Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional.โ€

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/7

Having retraced 50-60% off their lows, US equities โ†˜๏ธ hard on Powellโ€™s speech

$SPX -4.05% (w) -2.4% (T)
$COMP -4.45% (w) +0.1% (T)
$IWM -2.9% (w) 0.7% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ failed to retrace 50% before โ†˜๏ธ Image
2a/7

Equity vol โ†—๏ธ and firmly in the ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿชฃ

$VIX 25.56 +4.96 pts
$VXN 31.72 +4.98 pts
$RVX 30.48 +5.14 pts
$VSTOXX +2.08 pts
$VXEEM 21.28 +1.85 pts

Chart: $VIX back > 25 Image
Read 19 tweets
Aug 21
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

1/9 ๐Ÿงต

Global Macro Review 08/21/2022

$UUP ๐Ÿš€
$VIX โ†—๏ธ
$TLT โ†˜๏ธ
$GLD โ†˜๏ธ
$EFA โ†˜๏ธ
$BNO โ†˜๏ธ
$DBA โ†˜๏ธ

An aberration? or a resumption of primary Trend = (T)

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/9

๐Ÿคด๐Ÿฝ ๐Ÿ’ต aka the wrecking ๐ŸŽณ

$UUP +2.4% (w) +5.05% (T)
$FXF -1.75% (w) +1.45% (T)
$FXC -1.8% (w) -1.25% (T)
$FXE -2.2% (w) -5.15% (T)
$FXB -2.55% (w) -5.3% (T)
$FXY -2.5% (w) -6.7% (T)
$FXA -3.44% (w) -2.25% (T)

Chart: $USD with room to run
2a/9

$EURUSD back to parity
Read 17 tweets
Aug 19
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$HYG -1.55%
$TLT -0.55%

$SPX +0.1%
$COMPQ -0.65%
$DAX -1.65%
$SSEC -0.6%
$NIKK +1.35%

$USD +1.94% โฌ…๏ธ
$GBP -2.1%
$GOLD -2.7%

$WTIC -3.0%
$NATGAS +3.55%

$COPPER -1.25%

#Bitcoin -12.4% โฌ…๏ธ

Let's dig into the pre #opex ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ to โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 28930 -0.05%
$SSEC 3258 -0.6%
$TWII 15409 +0.1%
$HSI 19772 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2493 -0.6%
$IDX 7172 -0.2%

Australia โ†”๏ธ
$ASX 7114 unch

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 59639 -1.1%
Europe โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 13558 -1.0%
$FTSE 7514 -0.35%
$CAC 6512 -0.7%
$AEX 772 -0.5%
$IBEX 8343 -1.05%
$MIB 22643 -1.5%
$SMI 11174 +0.05%
$MOEX 2185 -0.45% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 23.54 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 13535 - 13895 ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets
Aug 14
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

1/7 ๐Ÿงต

Global Macro Review 08/14/2022

A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, โž• the July services #PMI โ†—๏ธ โž• #NFP โ†—๏ธ, kept the ๐Ÿ”ฅ burning on risk assets - enough to lure the โ™‰๏ธ

Is this a new โ™‰๏ธ market or the end of the ๐Ÿป rally?

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/7

Equity volatility โ†˜๏ธ across market and ๐Ÿป Trend (T)

$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps

Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM ๐Ÿ†• โ™‰๏ธ
3/7

US equity indices ๐Ÿš€

$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) ๐Ÿ†• โ™‰๏ธ
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)

Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline
Read 16 tweets

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