Thread by @MilanN_inBerlin

💥Few days after #ViktorOrban visited Moscow, #Hungary upping its game over EU's sanctions vs #Russia

The sanctions list can only be rolled over by unanimous vote

Deadline for renewal: 15 Sept

#Thread on why this is not 'business as usual' 1/8

@EditaHrdaEU @SFischer_EU

https://twitter.com/RikardJozwiak/status/1567121720418488321

2/ When EU agreed Russia oil embargo, HU used its veto to get exemptions for pipeline imports

It could point out to a) vital econ interests b) similar impact on two other CE landlocked countries

This time: HU is alone

3/ None of the three RU oligarchs that Orbán wants de-listed from EU sanctions (visa ban, asset freeze) have substantial business in #Hungary

These are big🐟for #Putin & his bussiness matters: Usmanov seen as his fixer

4/ When HU excluded Patriarch Kyrill, it argued by religious tolerance

This time: looks very transactional

A testing balloon🎈for more to come?

@panyiszabolcs @valentinapop @VALERIEinNYT

5/ What HU will get in return: more Russian gas? Further concessions at Paks2?

Also show of strenght. Who else from the EU sanction list to lobby him ahead of the next renewal?

6/ Let's not be misled by speculation in Brussels:

It's not about HU leverage to get EU recovery funds, which is to be decided in a few weeks (after the sanctions renewal)

In fact, it's running up the risks: new example of Orbán's non-transparent deals

@eszterz @HankeVela

7/ #Coreper will discuss it tomorrow

If HU gets its way on de-listing three oligarchs, it's not the end. Rather an entre to a gradual deconstruction of EU sanctions regime on #Russia

By following his own interests, Orbán doing Putin's bidding to erode the EU sanctions & unity

8/ If you follow Orbán's foreign policy, it's a pattern. Not related only to #Russia (more on that in a forth-coming @dgapev paper)

Unless political costs driven up, HU will continue free-riding on EU unanimity using it as cheap tool to advance its interests w/ 3rd powers
END