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Sep 25 • 8 tweets • 9 min read
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces likely continued to make localized gains along the #Kharkiv-#Luhansk Oblast border on September 24. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

A #Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian assault detachments occupied the settlements of #Hrianykivka and #Horobivka in northeastern #Kharkiv Oblast (about 70km east of Chuhuiv). /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources additionally indicated that Ukrainian forces are continuing positional battles further south along the Oskil River near #Kupyansk. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Geolocated combat footage posted on September 23 showing Ukrainian forces destroying a #Russian tank just east of #Petropavlivka supports this assessment. /4
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian troops also likely continued offensive operations around #Lyman on September 24. /5
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

A #Russian source claimed that Ukrainian troops took control of #Nove (18km due north of #Lyman) and are continuing to push south of Lyman from the Ridkodub-Nove line. /6
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Several #Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops also took control of half of #Novoselivka, 10km northwest of #Lyman. /7
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian forces conducted ground attacks around #Bakhmut, #Donetsk City, and in western #Donetsk Oblast. /8
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Sep 26
🧵Vladimir #Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in #Ukraine.

Our September 25 report examines those challenges, their roots, and their impact on the war: isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ The “partial mobilization” #Putin ordered on September 21 will generate additional forces for Russia but inefficiently and with high domestic social and political costs. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
3/ The forces generated by this “partial mobilization,” critically, are very unlikely to add substantially to the Russian military’s net combat power in 2022. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 10 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 26
ISW identified several key inflections in ongoing military operations and #Russian force generation efforts on September 25. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
#Ukrainian forces likely liberated the town of #Shevchenko in #Donetsk Oblast. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
#Ukrainian forces likely control #Maliivka in #Kharkiv Oblast. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
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ISW Profile picture
Sep 25
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

The #Kremlin’s “partial mobilization” continues to hastily press thousands of men across Russia into military service but remains unlikely to generate effective combat power. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Russian sources state that some mobilized men will receive 1-2 months of training. Others may receive even less. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Mobilization has drafted men in their upper 50s with serious medical conditions to fight in #Ukraine. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 24
Southern Axis Update:

#Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign in #Kherson Oblast and maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian progress on the axis. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Southern Axis Update:

#Russian occupation officials claimed that #Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defenses in western #Zaporizhia Oblast. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Southern Axis Update:

#Russian-appointed #Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on September 23 that a #Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group broke through Russian defenses near Polohy and traveled toward Rozivka. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 24
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces continued to advance north and northwest of #Lyman. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces have driven into the rear of Russian positions in #Lyman from the north, after reportedly breaking through Russian defenses around Karpivka and Ridkodub. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Another milblogger noted that there are no communications with a #Russian BARS-13 reservist detachment that was occupying a defensive position near Drobysheve (7km west of #Lyman). /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 24
The Russian mobilization system will likely fail to produce mobilized reserve forces even of the low quality that #Putin’s plans would have generated unless the #Kremlin can rapidly fix fundamental and systemic problems.

isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ #Putin and Defense Minister Sergey #Shoigu announced that the Russian Armed Forces would mobilize combat-ready reservists to quickly stabilize the frontlines and regain the initiative on the battlefield. However, milblogger and social media reports show...
...that Russian military recruitment centers, enlistment officials, and local administrations are mobilizing men who do not meet the #Kremlin’s stated criteria, especially #Shoigu’s promise that mobilization would prioritize men with “combat experience.”
Read 7 tweets

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