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Sep 26 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
ISW identified several key inflections in ongoing military operations and #Russian force generation efforts on September 25. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
#Ukrainian forces likely liberated the town of #Shevchenko in #Donetsk Oblast. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
#Ukrainian forces likely control #Maliivka in #Kharkiv Oblast. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
#Ukrainian forces are contesting #Russian positions around Karpivka, Nove, Ridkodub, and Novoserhiivka in #Donetsk Oblast. /4
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
#Russian sources claim that Russian forces hit #Ukraine’s Operational Command South headquarters in #Odesa with Shahed-136 drones on September 25. /5
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian contract soldiers in Zaporizhia Oblast have been informed that the terms of their contracts are no longer relevant and that they will have to continue to serve at the discretion of the military command. /6
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Sep 27
The #Kremlin’s planned annexation of occupied #Ukraine may take place before or shortly after October 1, the start of #Russia’s normal fall conscription cycle, to enable the forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians to fight against Ukraine. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
If it does, the #Kremlin will likely order the Russian Ministry of Defense to include Ukrainian civilians in occupied and newly annexed Ukrainian territory in the Russian conscription cycle, broadening the forced mobilization of Ukrainian civilians to fight against #Ukraine.
ISW has previously assessed that one motivation for Putin to order mobilization and annexation in concert with one another is to broaden the forced mobilization of Ukrainian civilians...
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 27
September 26 Assessment🧵

1/ The #Kremlin is deflecting blame for the Russian government’s failure to abide by its own stated criteria for mobilization and exemptions onto the failing bureaucratic institutions responsible for the mobilization. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ The Kremlin is downplaying the widespread violations as individual errors of local authorities, claiming to correct these errors as citizens call attention to them. But the violations are too common to be merely the result of individual errors, as Russian citizens clearly see.
3/ Unlike Russian failures in #Ukraine, which the #Kremlin has been able to minimize or deflect because its citizens cannot see them directly, violations of the mobilization decree are evident to many Russians. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 13 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 27
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in #Kharkiv and northern #Donetsk Oblasts continued to make gains near #Lyman on September 25 and September 26. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces likely captured #Maliivka, #Kharkiv Oblast, (25 km northwest of #Lyman) on September 25. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Several #Russian milbloggers reported that #Ukrainian forces captured #Shandryholove (12 km northwest of #Lyman), #Karpivka (20 km northwest of Lyman), and #Nove (19 km north of Lyman), in #Donetsk Oblast on September 26. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 26
"#Russia will mobilize reservists for this conflict. The process will be ugly, the quality of the reservists poor, and their motivation to fight likely even worse."

Read @TheStudyofWar's Sunday deep dive on "partial" mobilization w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ Despite these significant shortcomings, "the systems are sufficiently in place in Russia to allow military commissars and other officials to find people and send them to training units and thence to war." isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
3/ "But the low quality of the voluntary reserve units produced by earlier mobilization efforts is likely a reliable indicator of the net increase in combat power Russia can expect to generate in this way." isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 26
🧵Vladimir #Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in #Ukraine.

Our September 25 report examines those challenges, their roots, and their impact on the war: isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ The “partial mobilization” #Putin ordered on September 21 will generate additional forces for Russia but inefficiently and with high domestic social and political costs. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
3/ The forces generated by this “partial mobilization,” critically, are very unlikely to add substantially to the Russian military’s net combat power in 2022. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 10 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 25
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

The #Kremlin’s “partial mobilization” continues to hastily press thousands of men across Russia into military service but remains unlikely to generate effective combat power. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Russian sources state that some mobilized men will receive 1-2 months of training. Others may receive even less. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Mobilization has drafted men in their upper 50s with serious medical conditions to fight in #Ukraine. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 4 tweets

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