USA Timeline
'46-'70: Trust us, we're stable. No corruption here. We can be the trusted currency.
'71: Aaactually...
'72-'20: Hah, we can just erode EVERY OTHER NATION'S buying power, no consequences for us! PRIIIIIIIINT!
'21: Buy our debt or we all suff-.. oh, you already are.😱
Part of the underlying mentality of Bretton-Woods in 1946, when the #USD became the world's reserve #currency, was an acknowledgment of the lessons learned during the inter-war years.
One of the key areas weighted was the concept of economic security to ensure post-war peace.
A quote by Cordell Hull (U.S. Secretary of State, '33-'44) reflects his belief that the fundamental causes of the two world wars lay in economic discrimination and trade warfare:
Unhampered trade dovetailed with peace; high tariffs, trade barriers, and unfair economic...
competition, with war … if we could get a freer flow of trade…freer in the sense of fewer discriminations and obstructions…so that one country would not be deadly jealous of another and the living standards of all countries might rise, thereby eliminating...
the economic dissatisfaction that breeds war, we might have a reasonable chance of lasting peace."
That mentality has long since been lost in US politics and discourse.
Now it's "America First", all the way.
Why would the world keep funding that? At their own expense.
Stein's Law becomes relevant:
"If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
The world cannot keep subsidizing the living standard of US citizens until infinity, which is what #QEInfinity and all its brethren have essentially made us do.
FIAT = Trust.
Once it's gone...🤡
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In a complex financial world where everybody needs to have a Masters/PhD in math, economics, engineering, physics (or similar) to be taken seriously - what are the odds that market cycles, a result of the human psyche (@HowardMarksBook), become quantified into risky simplicity?
Yes, of course, fundamentals matter. Of course, statistics matter.
But the main reason we have cycles, the main reason we have excess fear and excess greed isn't because of the numbers - it's because of the psychological reaction humans have to the numbers.
That matters.
We have broken down everything in the markets to fit into nifty little spreadsheets and mathematical formulas, claiming the system is more robust, can take more leverage, and that there's nothing to fear because we'll see it coming in our gaussian distribution sims.
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.
Read on🧵
When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.
Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend:
But why am I not linking Twitter screenshots? Well, I haven't been on here for even two years yet, so my oldest conversations are in private FB chats with friends and family, as those were the only people I tried to warn.
2018 chats about #Euribor annual hedging puts re #ECB: