'46-'70: Trust us, we're stable. No corruption here. We can be the trusted currency.
'72-'20: Hah, we can just erode EVERY OTHER NATION'S buying power, no consequences for us! PRIIIIIIIINT!
'21: Buy our debt or we all suff-.. oh, you already are.😱
Part of the underlying mentality of Bretton-Woods in 1946, when the #USD became the world's reserve #currency, was an acknowledgment of the lessons learned during the inter-war years.
One of the key areas weighted was the concept of economic security to ensure post-war peace.
Sep 27 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In a complex financial world where everybody needs to have a Masters/PhD in math, economics, engineering, physics (or similar) to be taken seriously - what are the odds that market cycles, a result of the human psyche (@HowardMarksBook), become quantified into risky simplicity?
Yes, of course, fundamentals matter. Of course, statistics matter.
But the main reason we have cycles, the main reason we have excess fear and excess greed isn't because of the numbers - it's because of the psychological reaction humans have to the numbers.
Sep 25 • 19 tweets • 15 min read
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.
When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.