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_GTTG-Trades_ Profile picture
_GTTG-Trades_
@GttgTrades
When the GT T's the G 1. Follow/RT != Endorsement/Approval 2. No investment advice here - DYODD! 3. Epistemic humility 4. GIFs!
Oct 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Trust in #Dollar #UST as a reserve currency eroding rapidly, with yields on #US10Y #US2Y et al. exploding before our very eyes.

Every principle of global economic stability & equality and functions underlying the original #BrettonWoods agreement is more or less long gone.

/1 Image Due to the #petrodollar underpinning 85%+ of our global financial system, and because its abandonment would cause a hard reset (and the strength of #American industrial #militarycomplex), #DXY still reigns as #reservecurrency.

But the trust component is rapidly diminishing.

/2
Sep 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Currently, we give these storms names because they're so infrequent.

In a few decades, it'll just be another Thursday.

We really done fucked things up properly. Peak stupidity going forward would be rebuilding destroyed coastal areas, or buying anything below 50 ft above sea level.

If you own properties by the beach, you're going to want to sell while you can still get a decent price.

Might not be much profit left to get in 20~ years.
Sep 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 6 min read
#PCE #Core #Inflation keeps rising.

Main indicator for the #FederalReserve when judging whether or not to continue raising #interestrates.

#Powell was quite clear in his speeches that they will continue raising "into pain" as long as price stability is not achieved.

🧵 By "into pain", they are primarily referring to their dual mandate of price stability (#inflation) and maximum #Employment.

But there is not much pain showing up in the job market.

Last weekly jobless claims hit a 5-month low.

reuters.com/markets/us/us-…
Sep 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
USA Timeline
'46-'70: Trust us, we're stable. No corruption here. We can be the trusted currency.
'71: Aaactually...
'72-'20: Hah, we can just erode EVERY OTHER NATION'S buying power, no consequences for us! PRIIIIIIIINT!
'21: Buy our debt or we all suff-.. oh, you already are.😱 Part of the underlying mentality of Bretton-Woods in 1946, when the #USD became the world's reserve #currency, was an acknowledgment of the lessons learned during the inter-war years.
One of the key areas weighted was the concept of economic security to ensure post-war peace.
Sep 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In a complex financial world where everybody needs to have a Masters/PhD in math, economics, engineering, physics (or similar) to be taken seriously - what are the odds that market cycles, a result of the human psyche (@HowardMarksBook), become quantified into risky simplicity? Yes, of course, fundamentals matter. Of course, statistics matter.

But the main reason we have cycles, the main reason we have excess fear and excess greed isn't because of the numbers - it's because of the psychological reaction humans have to the numbers.

That matters.
Sep 25, 2022 • 19 tweets • 15 min read
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.

Read on🧵 When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.

Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend: Image