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Sep 28 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
September 27 Assessment Highlight:

#Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the #Kherson and #Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ A mobilized servicemember of the 1st Tank Regiment of an unspecified unit recorded a video plea stating that his unit will not receive training prior to deploying to Kherson Oblast on September 29. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
3/ @RFERL's @kromark geolocated the serviceman’s surroundings to the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division’s base in Kalininets, Moscow Oblast:
4/ ISW previously reported that Russian forces have committed elements of the 147th Artillery Regiment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division to Kherson Oblast in late August, and are likely attempting to reinforce units in the south in short periods with untrained, newly-mobilized men.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Sep 29
Russian authorities continue to send newly-mobilized and undertrained recruits to directly reinforce severely degraded remnants of various units, including units that were previously considered to be #Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.

isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that newly-mobilized Russian men arrived to reinforce elements of the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army in unspecified areas of Ukraine with no training at all. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
3/ Social media footage from September 27 shows a Russian soldier mobilized into the 1st Tank Regiment explaining that he will be sent to fight in #Kherson Oblast within two days without any basic training, as @TheStudyofWar reported yesterday.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 29
Ukrainian military officials largely maintained operational silence regarding specific actions in #Kherson Oblast but stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing positional battles in unspecified locations to consolidate and improve their positions. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
2/ Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole and in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts on September 28. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Mykolaiv City and Zaporizhzhia City.
3/ Ukrainian sources reported that Russian heavy artillery and Grad rocket strikes damaged critical infrastructure in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 29
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces likely continued to make significant gains around #Lyman on September 28, advancing from the north along the Zelena Dolyna-Kolodiazi arc and from the southeast around Yampil. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep… Image
2/ Geolocated combat footage corroborates claims made by Russian milbloggers that Ukrainians took control of Zelena Dolyna (15km north of #Lyman) and pushed east to take control of Kolodiazi (11km northeast of Lyman). isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
3/ Ukrainian troops also continued offensive operations around #Kupyansk on September 28. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian troops raising Ukrainian flags over Kivsharivka, about 10km southeast of Kupyansk. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 27
The #Kremlin’s planned annexation of occupied #Ukraine may take place before or shortly after October 1, the start of #Russia’s normal fall conscription cycle, to enable the forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians to fight against Ukraine. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
If it does, the #Kremlin will likely order the Russian Ministry of Defense to include Ukrainian civilians in occupied and newly annexed Ukrainian territory in the Russian conscription cycle, broadening the forced mobilization of Ukrainian civilians to fight against #Ukraine.
ISW has previously assessed that one motivation for Putin to order mobilization and annexation in concert with one another is to broaden the forced mobilization of Ukrainian civilians...
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 27
September 26 Assessment🧵

1/ The #Kremlin is deflecting blame for the Russian government’s failure to abide by its own stated criteria for mobilization and exemptions onto the failing bureaucratic institutions responsible for the mobilization. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ The Kremlin is downplaying the widespread violations as individual errors of local authorities, claiming to correct these errors as citizens call attention to them. But the violations are too common to be merely the result of individual errors, as Russian citizens clearly see.
3/ Unlike Russian failures in #Ukraine, which the #Kremlin has been able to minimize or deflect because its citizens cannot see them directly, violations of the mobilization decree are evident to many Russians. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 13 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 27
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in #Kharkiv and northern #Donetsk Oblasts continued to make gains near #Lyman on September 25 and September 26. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces likely captured #Maliivka, #Kharkiv Oblast, (25 km northwest of #Lyman) on September 25. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Several #Russian milbloggers reported that #Ukrainian forces captured #Shandryholove (12 km northwest of #Lyman), #Karpivka (20 km northwest of Lyman), and #Nove (19 km north of Lyman), in #Donetsk Oblast on September 26. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 6 tweets

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