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Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Sep 8

Let's talk electricity.

Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages from what I call a crisis of confidence.

I will explain why, back it with data & kindly ask YOU to share it as the fix lies in voting for balanced policies. We must adapt, urgently!

1/n
#Electricity

@WifeyAlpha

For those of you short of time, attached a brief summary of the issue at hand.

I was asked to compare the 1970ies energy crisis with today's for a Turkish newspaper. My answer below.

For those of you with time, please read on.

2/n #Greenflation #Stagflation @WifeyAlpha

The European electricity grid is a modern miracle. It is the largest synchronous electrical grid (by connected power) in the world. It interconnects 520 million end-customers in 32 countries, including non-European Union members such as Morocco or Turkey.

3/n

Read 73 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Sep 5

Let us look at the state of the European gas market.

We have worked hard to collect real time data where possible and are convinced to have a worldclass database by now.

What did we find out?

Thread 1/n
#TTF #LNG

Big picture first:

- Consumption: -12.2% yoy;
- RUS pipe imports: -48% yoy (inc. RUS LNG imports -42%);
- Local Production: +0.6% (Groningen could increase EU production by 10% alone within weeks);
- LNG imports: +70%.
- Net storage build: 45bcm!

2/n #Netherlands

Storage:

- ITA, FRA, GER, POL or CZE have done a great job saving gas to fill salt cavities et al "whatever it takes style".
- UK cannot b/c it lacks storage;
- EE struggles to access more flows;
- EU covers 51 of 180 winter days (<2 months).

So it needs flows!

3/n

Read 17 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Aug 6

The European electricity crisis is deepens as it proves hard to save gas.

1) 🇫🇷 had to reduce nuclear output further due to high river temp (u can cool the reactor, but cannot let water back into the river to protect wildlife).

Result: Nuclear output (in MWh) collapses.

1/n

As I explained in the past days, 🇫🇷 has Europe's 2nd largest grid and was an exporter for as long as we can measure it. Not anymore.

In the context of the 🇩🇪 grid struggling too due to gas shortages, the list of issues gets longer by the week!

2/n

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1555598998068666368?s=20&t=O-Wyj9IAmcEDL3pXXXESEQ

2) Meanwhile, Switzerland also has to reduce nuclear output due to high river temperatures.

Not a big issue because it will normalise once the heat wave ends in Sept. But it means that🇨🇭is unable to export electricity to 🇫🇷.

3/n

Read 9 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Aug 3

Let's talk European electricity, shall we?

Thread
Part I (of many more to come); 1/n

European electricity prices are spiking for all major economies except for Spain. But also Spanish consumers pay 3x more compared with only May 2021.

2/n

In fact, most European power prices are 12-15x higher than they were in 2015. Needless to say, the European industry will go into a deep recession at these prices.

3/n

Read 30 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Jul 24

We told you to sell base metal miners on 15/5/22. That was a good call.

As with other l/s call such as "short gold" in Nov 2020, it received critisism.

Let us now review what happened with Dr Copper (one proxy) since.

1/n 🧵👋 #copper

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1525832468267417603?s=20&t=LNvb6mPZCTB_3n0E1MpJ6A

Starting June 2nd, Cu collapsed 29% in less than six weeks. How often did that happen?

Answer: not often! In past 25y Cu crashed only 8x >7% in a single week as in one week this June (stat below) & only 29x >5% (2x per week in June & July 2022).

Big quantamentel signals!

2/n

How is that possible, when global reported inventories (LME; Comex; Shanghai) are below their 10-year average? Aren't commodities priced on inventories?

Chart: Global Cu inventory (reported by exchanges); Source: Bloomberg
3/n

Read 10 tweets

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦

@BurggrabenH

Jun 30

@kittysquiddy

French peak power prices for December 2022 explode well past their marginal cost of production.

They reached scary €1513/MWh!

Why?

1/3 #electricity #Inflation @kittysquiddy @WifeyAlpha @agnostoxxx @AndurandPierre

@EmmanuelMacron

Because the market lost trust in EDF’s mgmt to fix the maintenance issues in time for the winter.

France’s nuclear power runs at a dismal 46.5% capacity utilisation.

Best to fix it @EmmanuelMacron. Oil is not your problem, power is!

2/3 #France Allez les bleus!

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1539726172195782656

@LionHirth

In other words, the price will climb to levels where it will reduce demand enough to meet supply.

Below a helpful cost curve graph by @LionHirth - h/t…!

3/3 End / Thx @JavierBlas

https://twitter.com/lionhirth/status/1542237237865332739

Read 4 tweets

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