Mortymer Profile picture
Sep 30 7 tweets 5 min read
@visitor_day @oyryeng The final decision is on consumers - do they want the gas or not?

I believe they do. That was the rational behind those pipeline in the first place.

It's simple RF has gas - EI needs gas. Build pipe and profit. Politicians handle state finances, board members handle profit.
@visitor_day @oyryeng So what is happening now is those politicians and EU energy companies calling in other frantically in a chaotic dance to coordinate the final commitment to the future deliveries.

This is a MAJOR strategic f*ckup of those who done the deed. This is why US has not approved the ...
@visitor_day @oyryeng strike in the first place and warned Germany actually in advance.

The US wants EU under its leadership and is not hesitating to weaken it yet it does not want it to fail nor does it want it have good relationship with Russia which MAY actually happen as a result of the strike.
@visitor_day @oyryeng IMHO the #NS has NOT been damaged by Russia as there was already force majeure on it (destroyed or not, makes no difference).

Now the damage is being assessed and calculation about cost of fixing.

The EU sanctioned repair and laying ships so will it keep sanctions on?

EU has..
@visitor_day @oyryeng cornered itself so it must say if it wants deliveries or not.

Now Poland sanctioned Gazprom so no deliveries through Belarus YAMAL.

There is a payment dispute between Gazprom and Naftogas (Ukraine) so Russia threatens to stop deliveries.

THIS is a strategic positioning in...
@visitor_day @oyryeng which Poland has a weak hand and is pushing its position as a new European energy hub to countries to commit to long term deals (LNG, NOR,...) so it secures future income.

Meanwhile the Russia is strategically hinting EU pushing it to commit to lifting sanctions so NS could be..
@visitor_day @oyryeng repaired.

So, as you can see, events could be interpreted once one slows and thinks deep and long.

Would Russia blow NS pipes to push EU to lift those sanctions? and make the decisive step to commit?

Ehm, why not to blow those pipes in Ukraine then and blame it on UA terror?

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More from @mortymer001

Sep 17
@AZmilitary1 THIS geopolitical decision will have HUGE consequences for shaping of future of the whole 🌍

Let's 🪚 in it, shall we?

FEW POSTULATES:

1️⃣ Economics trumps politics

2️⃣ All major surplus economies are located on Euro-Asia (🇪🇺🇨🇳🇷🇺🇮🇳🇸🇦...)

3️⃣ Two trader gates to EuroAsia (🇬🇧🇯🇵)
@AZmilitary1 4️⃣ The 🇺🇸 is the outside Island power, needs to ctrl seas.

5️⃣ The 🇺🇸 is the only debtor of international monetary reserves.

6️⃣ Africa, South America are ATM insignificant.

7️⃣ The biggest threat to 🇺🇸 is if EuroAsia integrates & unites.

8️⃣ The 🇺🇸 has imposed 🚧 roadblocks
@AZmilitary1 9️⃣ I call them #Mackinder #Roadblocks against E-A integration:
- Located on land trade choke-points
- Have form of failed states
- Afghanistan (20 years, let opium thrive, nothing built, prevented any development, created factions)
- Iraq (After unable to ctrl ISIS)
- Syria, UA.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 15
A short monetary history trip to 1967's exploring the exchange between Karl Blessing #Bundesbank, and the then Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System #FED, William Martin. Image
...keep reading the juice will be at the end.. Image
Are we there yet?
Nope...
Here are just some boring footnotes for the record. Juice coming soon in red: Image
Read 7 tweets
May 11
It is 1975 and oil oil exporters and importers try to find solution for broken monetary system.

An interesting history 🧵🧵🧵
How could oil producing countries keep their purchasing power in times of turbulent seventies?
#Gold #Oil #MonetaryAffairs #IMS
Few years before 16 January 1979 when the Shah had fled Iran...
Read 10 tweets
May 11
Once Iraq´s Saddam Hussein said about oil management:
A small thread about oil politics:

🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

Is the US in the Gulf to "steal" the oil? -> NO!
All the oil ever consumed is LESS that 1/5 of Lake Tahoe: tinyurl.com/5n7fsc9e

Do this:
- Just zoom in and out.
- Think that all this burns at once and creates a cloud/blanket covering whole Earth.
- Tell me, would this little fart make ANY difference to #GlobalWarming ?
Read 10 tweets
May 11
About #Transnistria, #Moldova, #Nato and #Russia. A small🧵

But lets start with Georgia first!

During NATO's 2008 Bucharest summit in Bucharest, United States and Poland called for Georgia to be allowed to join the Membership Action Plan (MAP). A roadmap was set. (1/N)
The issue with accession articles and preambles is that implicitly no country without full control of its borders can join the alliance.

Let it sink.

Neither Georgia, Ukraine nor Moldova can join NATO without solving their territorial issues.

Internal conflicts matter. (2/N)
In Georgia it is #Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
In Ukraine it is #Crimea, #Donbas and #Lugansk regions.
In #Moldova it is #Transnitria.

Note that Russia has been for years working hard on their border issues.

Escalation in new member conflict zone would trigger art5. (3/10)
Read 15 tweets
May 9
FREEZING ASSETS OF FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS IN INTERNATIONAL LAW: AGAIN IN THE SPOTLIGHT

monardlaw.be/en/stories/fre…
"Freezing the assets means that they are blocked and therefore can no longer be withdrawn, transferred, paid, etc.: in principle, it is essentially a temporary measure, that is not tantamount to a confiscation. "
In some cases, however, the sanctioning State goes one step further and allows the funds to be used to satisfy judgments against the targeted State (this is what happened with the assets held by Iran’s Central Bank in the U.S., thereby triggering litigation at the International
Read 6 tweets

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