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JR2

@JanR210

Oct 1

1/n
70+ years old #Russian assessment of the 🇷🇺 Army
- low/no quality military training
- army as private pasture (looted by the top brass)
- a paper tiger
- no smart tactics, just fight to die
- only ceremonies & parades lon43.livejournal.com/669950.html?il…

2/n
- 🇷🇺 listen & swallow the 3xS propaganda & subservience(Simonyan, Solovev, Skabeeva)
- miraculously to 🇷🇺 command, 🇺🇦 turned out not to be stupid chicken but smart & strong
- & 🇷🇺 rooster is loosing its down, plumage and claws
- no blitzkrieg whatsoever

3/n
- 🇷🇺 army fails and it is presumably the best what #Russia had
- but its best is in killing & raping children
- 🇷🇺 losses predominately among Tuva, Buryatya, Dagestan inhabitants, non-Russians
- if more 🇷🇺 killed, expect social unrest, even mutiny

Read 5 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Sep 30

@nashaniva

🧵1/n
#RussianNuclear option. My thoughts.
Inspired by ⁦@nashaniva⁩ article. Thank you.

🇺🇦source quotes ⁦@Forbes⁩ (F) on 🇷🇺 options with tactical #nuclear strike.
I disagree.
nashaniva.com/ru/300225

2/n
(F) says #Putin most likely to hit a military formation or logistics center. I disagree, because it would mean a ground level strike followed by a significant contamination. Putin knows the strategic consequences. Hence a high altitude nuclear explosion is much more likely.

3/n
RVSN will not be used because this is the global reach weapon threatening NATO/USA, not 🇺🇦. And would trigger a US/NATO critical defcon level.
I wanted to say that (F) claim of the most powerful tactical nuclear yield in Russia is incorrect (100 kt mentioned), but I can’t.

Read 10 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Sep 8

A #Russian source:
1/
A scattered description of a #DNR infantry coy (Feb-Sept 2022)
⁃ Feb: combat experience: 3-5 men
⁃ any military service: further 15
⁃ coy HQ: 2 reserve officers, no experience
⁃ in 6 months: shrank from 100+ to 60+ men

2/
⁃ medical verification: positive if younger than 70 yo, a must is head, two hands, two legs
- majority: no leaves for 6 months
- weapons: AK-74, no mortars, two grenade launchers
- no bulletproof vests, comms, NVGs, drones, mines, winter BDUs
- one binocular

3/
⁃ unit initially responsible for rear area security, now it’s #Rosgvardya responsibility, coy/regt went to frontline attached to a regular 🇷🇺 BTG (50 men, incl. about 25 officers, no new personnel for 6 months)
⁃ coy covers 1500m frontline, no forward fire controllers

Read 4 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Sep 8

1/ #Russian artillery operator opinion on combat #drones:
⁃ from platoon to brigade, all units need drones
⁃ from the D-Day
⁃ 🇷🇺 HQs disagree/ignore the issue
⁃ remedy: if you (a 🇷🇺 tactical cdr) insist, write an official request
⁃ the #UAV shortage in 🇷🇺 army is a disaster

2/
- AliExpress is the quickest solution
- Regular 🇷🇺 procedure to obtain a drone: 1. decision on the deputy MoD level, 2. some classified institutes tasked, 3. Agree tactical/technical requirements, 4. Sign a contract,

3/ 5. Prepare 30+ licences, approvals, and two suitcases of shit-value docs, 1-5: takes two years. 6. Do you think you may start production?
⁃ Yes, but: 1. it must be all Russia-made, 2. -50/+50 Celsius to all batteries & optics, 3. reliability factor must be multiplied by 30,

Read 6 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Sep 8

Author: Igor Garin.
Book Title: Atrocities of the collective#Putin.
1/ soon a term "#Russian" becomes a stigma. They'll buy foreign passports and be ashamed writing down their names. Word "Russian" will become a synonym of SS & nazi, a toxic anti-christian expression.

2/ on Hitler/Putin comparison:
H. murdered Jews, Roma; P. murders Russians.
In short, P. will never achieve what H. did.
There's no future for the nation (🇷🇺), if it blames Obama & the West for no infrastructure & no electricity.

3/ Russia is unable to create a country that protects human & civil rights. 90% support P.
There is no law in 🇷🇺, but poverty & "culture". And this 🇷🇺 culture makes them feel the dominant nation. 🇷🇺 commits crimes against own citizens like Navalny, Politkovskaya or Litvinenko.

Read 9 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Jul 29

#Russian ops/ORBAT update (1/n)
- 14 Spetsnaz Bde to set up 32 recce-sabotage groups
- 8-9 new BTGs from Estern MD to #Crimea
- 5 BTGs from 76 Airborne Div augmented with tanks
- VDV force may increase from 8,5k to 11k soldiers
- 19 MRDiv aug with T-90 realist.online/politika/armij…

(2/n)
- Nikolayevsk/Krivorog area: air surveillance increased: 45 UAV flights per day (up from 20/day)
- new (16) 203mm 2S7 arty near Radensk
- field airstrips for Ka-52/Mi-24 helos prepared near Chaplinka
- unloaded 18 2S4 heavy mortars in Crimea

(3/n)
- likely 🇷🇺 operation towards Nikolaev-Odesa-Transnistria or Krivorog-Zaporozhe-Dnipro
-#Kherson/Donbas: predominately D/LNR & Wagner forces
- only the forces near Izyum are from the 🇷🇺 Army (30 BTGs)
- reserves from #Belgorod move to the south to the coast

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