I've seen enough. Worst possible #Lula victory in first-round of #brazilianelections today. Much more worried now for second round for the following reasons.
#Eleicoes2022 #Thread 🧵
#Eleicoes2022 #Thread 🧵
1. #Lula wins 47%-48%, which is in line with average of polls. So, this is good, but...
His lead over Bolsonaro is just 3-4%.
His lead over Bolsonaro is just 3-4%.
2. #Bolsonaro wins 43%-44%, which is 5-10% more than most polls predicted.
@BrazilBrian had said that some experts had been skeptical about the polls. I doubt they expected such a difference.
@BrazilBrian had said that some experts had been skeptical about the polls. I doubt they expected such a difference.
3. To be clear, I still expect #Lula to win the second round.
HOWEVER, the margin will be small. Not just single digit, possible just 3-5%.
AND, this is without something dramatic happening in between that swings it for Bolsonaro (remember the stabbing attack?).
HOWEVER, the margin will be small. Not just single digit, possible just 3-5%.
AND, this is without something dramatic happening in between that swings it for Bolsonaro (remember the stabbing attack?).
4. All of this significantly increases the credibility of "stolen elections" narrative among Bolsonaro supporters and thus the possibility of post-electoral violence.
- small margin of victory
- polls heavily underestimated Bolsonaro
- Bolsonaro will lead for much of the night
- small margin of victory
- polls heavily underestimated Bolsonaro
- Bolsonaro will lead for much of the night
5. There are very strong similarities to US 2020 elections.
- Trump/Bolsonaro do (much) better than expected, despite similar/higher turnout.
- They are defeated with small margin (in US more in Electoral College terms).
- Both could/would have won without #COVID19
- Trump/Bolsonaro do (much) better than expected, despite similar/higher turnout.
- They are defeated with small margin (in US more in Electoral College terms).
- Both could/would have won without #COVID19
6. Interestingly, while much of the business and media elite soured on Bolsonaro/Trump, their support among richest parts remained stable. Indicates decline of influence of old right-wing elites.
7. Even if Lula wins, he will face very different situation than before. His popularity is lower, his electoral mandate partly based on ousting Bolsonaro, as world is facing energy crisis.
This time around, his opposition is not just in corridors of power but also in streets.
This time around, his opposition is not just in corridors of power but also in streets.
8. Although both Bolsonaro and Trump loose after one term, they do so very narrowly, and mostly because of a freak cause (the pandemic). Four years of corruption and incompetence have done little to their support though.
9. I think this says a lot, and perhaps most, about how disliked the main alternative is (PT/Dems). People increasingly vote against rather than for. Which further weakens support and legitimacy of both governments and the system as a whole.
10. Moreover, based on US experience, expect the right to further radicalize rather than moderate. And to be very competitive again in 4 years.
In other words, a #Lula victory in second round will be the winning of a battle, not the war. #TheEnd
#Eleicoes2022 #Brazil
In other words, a #Lula victory in second round will be the winning of a battle, not the war. #TheEnd
#Eleicoes2022 #Brazil
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
