Cas Mudde Profile picture
Oct 2 11 tweets 5 min read
I've seen enough. Worst possible #Lula victory in first-round of #brazilianelections today. Much more worried now for second round for the following reasons.

#Eleicoes2022 #Thread 🧵
1. #Lula wins 47%-48%, which is in line with average of polls. So, this is good, but...

His lead over Bolsonaro is just 3-4%.
2. #Bolsonaro wins 43%-44%, which is 5-10% more than most polls predicted.

@BrazilBrian had said that some experts had been skeptical about the polls. I doubt they expected such a difference.
3. To be clear, I still expect #Lula to win the second round.

HOWEVER, the margin will be small. Not just single digit, possible just 3-5%.

AND, this is without something dramatic happening in between that swings it for Bolsonaro (remember the stabbing attack?).
4. All of this significantly increases the credibility of "stolen elections" narrative among Bolsonaro supporters and thus the possibility of post-electoral violence.

- small margin of victory
- polls heavily underestimated Bolsonaro
- Bolsonaro will lead for much of the night
5. There are very strong similarities to US 2020 elections.

- Trump/Bolsonaro do (much) better than expected, despite similar/higher turnout.

- They are defeated with small margin (in US more in Electoral College terms).

- Both could/would have won without #COVID19
6. Interestingly, while much of the business and media elite soured on Bolsonaro/Trump, their support among richest parts remained stable. Indicates decline of influence of old right-wing elites.
7. Even if Lula wins, he will face very different situation than before. His popularity is lower, his electoral mandate partly based on ousting Bolsonaro, as world is facing energy crisis.

This time around, his opposition is not just in corridors of power but also in streets.
8. Although both Bolsonaro and Trump loose after one term, they do so very narrowly, and mostly because of a freak cause (the pandemic). Four years of corruption and incompetence have done little to their support though.
9. I think this says a lot, and perhaps most, about how disliked the main alternative is (PT/Dems). People increasingly vote against rather than for. Which further weakens support and legitimacy of both governments and the system as a whole.
10. Moreover, based on US experience, expect the right to further radicalize rather than moderate. And to be very competitive again in 4 years.

In other words, a #Lula victory in second round will be the winning of a battle, not the war. #TheEnd

#Eleicoes2022 #Brazil

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More from @CasMudde

Oct 1
Games of @PSV and @borussia back to back now. Have been looking forward to this for two weeks… might regret that soon enough. ❤️🤍🖤
Comical 1-0 for Cambuur. EVERYONE fails. Starting to think Benitez wasn’t a very good choice either.
2-0 Cambuur. Game over. Deserved win of team that lost last four games against team that somehow ended up top of the league with one great game.

I’m not a fan of changing coaches early on but Van Nistelrooij is clearly not ready yet for this level. Terrible exchanges. #CAMPSV
Read 5 tweets
Sep 21
I am getting a lot of emails about "the rise of the far right in Europe" the last days. That generally means that there are two countries that gained broader attention in which the far right does well. But how significant is this "rise" really? #thread 🧵
In Sweden 🇸🇪, #SwedenDemocrats gained 3% compared to 2018. Taking into account slightly lower turnout, it was actually 2%.

2022: 20.5% x 84.2% = 17.26%
2018: 17.5% x 87.1% = 15.24%
In France, Marine Le Pen gained effectively (% of electorate) just o.6% in 1st round and 4.6% in 2nd round.

2022: 23.2% x 73.7% = 17.2%
2017: 21.3% x 77.8% = 16.6%

2022: 41.5% x 72.0% = 29.9%
2017: 33.9% x 74.6% = 25.3%
Read 11 tweets
Sep 12
With this bang on the gong 22 scholars, including me, were officially inducted into the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Science or @_knaw , joining roughly 600 others. Sadly, I had to do it online.

An enormous honor after a not very traditional career. A quick #thread 🧵 Image
1. I never thought about, or wanted to, become an academic. I never excelled at, or enjoyed, school and even had to repeat 5th class in high school. I mainly entered university to avoid military service (then still compulsory in the Netherlands).
2. I graduated high school with five 6s and two 7s (out of 10) and profited from the fact that universities in the Netherlands are not competitive and allow anyone with the proper high school degree to enter (irrespective of their grades). 🙏
Read 26 tweets
Aug 16
Great thread by my colleague @AmandaMurdie (read it!). Some additions:

1. Journals require too many reviews (2 is enough).
2. Pool of reviewers of most journals is too small.
3. Pools overlap too much.
4. Too many submissions!
Ad 1) There is a pissing match between “top” journals to have more and more reviewers per manuscript to show how “selective” and “serious” they are.
Ad 2) Pools are often based on personal and professional connections and a few “big names” on specific topics. Many journals only want seniors.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 16
The debate about democratic erosion continues to make the classic mistake of externalizing the threats, focusing on the extremist margins rather than the political mainstream. 🧵
1. Case in point, with regard of #January6th almost all focus is on the people who storming the Capitol rather than those inside of it.
2. People and organizations we should focus less on:

- Alex Jones
- Atomwaffen
- Proud Boys
Read 6 tweets
Aug 15
I finally read the whole book by @A_SHEKH0VTS0V on the relationship between Russia and the Western far right. It is essential reading for academics, journos, and think tankers working/writing on the topic.

Some quick thoughts. 🧵…
1. For me personally, it was more insightful on Russia's position on the far right than the far right's position on Russia. This is not just because I know the far right better, but because Anton's analysis of the Kremlin and Russian politics is excellent.
2. He highlights how Russia prefers mainstream political actors ("Putin Versteher") but is kind of forced to rely increasingly on "radical" actors because of Russia's increasingly toxic image in the West.
Read 7 tweets

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