Thread by @TheStudyofWar

Tonight's campaign assessment from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats focuses on #Russian domestic responses to the #Kerch Strait Bridge explosion on October 9 and changes within the Russian chain of command.

isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…

/2 #Ukrainian forces continued to make advances towards Svatove-Kreminna highway on October 9. Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail tomorrow.

2/ The attack on the #KerchStrait Bridge, coupled with recent Russian military failures and partial mobilization, is generating direct criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin from the Russian pro-war nationalist community. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct9

3/ These critiques from the pro-war camp may indicate rising doubts about #Putin’s ability to deliver on his promised goal of “denazifying” #Ukraine and may undermine Putin’s appeal within his core constituency. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct9

4/ Other Russian nationalists, propagandists, and proxy officials are blaming security services and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), a phenomenon that can undermine Putin’s regime in the long term. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct9

5/ The perception of the trajectory of the war and of Ukrainian capabilities is changing as well, and Russians are undergoing a rude awakening. Russian sources see that the Ukrainian southern counter-offensive poses a significant threat to Russian forces across southern #Ukraine.

6/ Russian voices within the info space responded by demanding that the Russian military retaliates for the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion by regaining the initiative on the battlefield and resuming the missile campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct9