Thread by @anasalhajji

Short thread on #Iran:

1- I am getting numerous questions about Iran.

a- If you study how dictators & governments collapsed, you find a common thread: Regime's lines of communication collapsed!

b- If you think global superpowers want #democracy in Iran, think again. #Iran

2- A regime collapse leads to a major decline in oil & natural gas production and exports. We have seen this before. President Biden cannot have it both ways.

3- A regime collapse might lead to the "Iraqization" of Iran wth rampant sectarian and ethnic violence. #Iran #Iraq

4- The Iranian regime is not only a brutal murderous regime, but it is also a terrorist regime that violated all principles of human rights & gave Islam a bad name.
We have seen what foreign interference has done in Iran before & minorities will be supported by other countries.

5- If the regime collapses, I will not be surprised if the US, along with other countries, takes over the Iranian part of the largest gas field in the world: the South Pars/North Dome field. This is to protect Qatari LNG supplies now and in the future. #Qatar

6- The above should not be interpreted as the US's desire to control the field (American companies and US military base are already nearby), it is just the strategic necessity to protect gas supplies given current and future problems. Any superpower would do that.

7- The collapse of the regime in Iran might lead to civil wars in Lebanon & Iraq. While this is no reason to support the regime, if the Iranian regime collapses, the possibility of losing Iranian and Iraqi oil AT ONCE is real and US military involvement in the gas field is high.

8- Losing Iranian and Iraqi oil at once might lead to a sea change...with small spare oil production capacity & tanker insurance rates going through the roof, will the US military go back to Iraq to secure the southern oil fields?

Finally, notice the IFs in the thread... relax!