NEW #Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row; Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensives east of the #Oskil River and in the direction of #Kreminna-Svatove.
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
2/ Army General Sergey #Surovikin’s previous experience as commander of Russian forces in Syria likely does not explain the massive wave of missile strikes across #Ukraine over the past few days, nor does it signal a change in the trajectory of Russian capabilities or strategy.
3/ As @TheStudyofWar noted in April, all Russian military district, aerospace, and airborne commanders served at least one tour in Syria as either chief of staff or commander of Russian forces...
...and Russian forces deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure including hospitals and breadlines throughout the period of #Russia’s active engagement in that war. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
4/Disregarding international law and enthusiasm for brutalizing civilian populations was the standard operating procedure for Russian forces in Syria before, during, and after #Surovikin’s tenure. It has become part of the Russian way of war. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
5/ #Surovikin’s appointment will not lead to further “Syrianization” of Russian operations in #Ukraine because the battlespace in Ukraine is fundamentally different from the battlespace in Syria...
...and direct comparisons to Surovikin’s Syrian “playbook” obfuscate the fact that #Russia faces very different challenges in #Ukraine. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
6/ Russian military officials may instead have coordinated #Surovikin’s appointment and the October 10 cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure to rehabilitate the perception of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
7/ Whoever was appointed as theatre commander would have overseen the Oct. 10 cruise missile strikes, which Ukrainian intelligence reported had been planned as early as Oct. 2 (and which Surovikin certainly did not plan, prepare for, and conduct on the day of his appointment).
8/ Russian milbloggers have recently lauded both the massive wave of strikes on October 10 and Surovikin’s appointment and correlated the two as positive developments for Russian operations in Ukraine. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
9/ The informational effects of the October 10 missile strikes and the appointment of #Surovikin, a hero in the extremist nationalist Russian information space, are likely intended to cater to the most vocal voices in that space. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
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