NEW: Members of the #Russian#siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in #Ukraine, indicating that #Putin will continue to struggle to appease the pro-war constituency in the long term.
2/ The Russian siloviki faction refers to people with meaningful power bases within #Putin’s inner circle who are fielding combat forces in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar102522
3/ Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov complained that the Russian response to claimed Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory has been “weak,” that Russia is now engaged in a war with Ukraine instead of a “special military operation,”
...and that he is unhappy with the lack of Russian retaliation despite the establishment of martial law. isw.pub/UkrWar102522
4/ Russian siloviki have also directly confronted #Putin regarding the progress of the Russian war in Ukraine, which further highlights their significance within Russian power structures.
5/ This supports ISW’s assessment that Prigozhin holds a unique position that allows him to reap the benefits of Putin’s dependency on Wagner forces w/o having formal responsibility for any axis or area in #Ukraine & while wielding considerable influence in the information space.
6/ #Putin’s regime is largely dependent on Putin’s monopolization of the state information space, but #Prigozhin is increasingly challenging that monopoly.
7/ #Prigozhin’s influence in the information space is evident through the positive portrayal of #Wagner forces, despite their failure to make significant advances in the #Bakhmut area.
8/ #Wagner forces have yet to reach #Bakhmut despite fighting there since early summer and are reportedly suffering significant losses. isw.pub/UkrWar102522
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Russian officials continued to admit that #Russia is deporting Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of adoption and vacation schemes. isw.pub/UkrWar102622
2/ Russian media reported on October 26 that the Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, adopted a Ukrainian child who was deported from Mariupol to Russia.
3/ Lvova-Belova claimed that Russian officials have brought 31 children from Mariupol to Russia and that her office is working to “rehabilitate” Ukrainian children from active combat zones.
2/ Prigozhin explicitly denied @TheStudyofWar's October 25 assessment and falsely insinuated that ISW receives classified intelligence.
3/ ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery & other geospatial data for our work.
Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s rhetoric indicates that he is not interested in negotiating seriously with #Ukraine and retains maximalist objectives for the war. isw.pub/UkrWar102622
2/ Putin stated that #Ukraine has “lost sovereignty” in a meeting with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) security officials on October 26.
3/ This language is incompatible with negotiations on an equal basis for a ceasefire, let alone a resolution to the conflict that #Russia began.
NEW: A @Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned #Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports @TheStudyofWar's longstanding assessments about the poor condition of Russian forces.
2/ ISW has long assessed that the conventional Russian military in Ukraine is severely degraded and has largely lost offensive capabilities...that Russian strategic commanders have been micromanaging operational commanders' tactical decisions, and that Russian morale is very low.
3/ @Reuters' investigation found that Russian units near Balakliya were severely understrength, with a combat battalion at 19.6 percent strength and a reserve unit at 23 percent strength. reuters.com/investigates/s…
#Russian occupation officials continued to indicate that efforts to “evacuate” civilians in #Kherson Oblast to the east bank of #Dnipro River are part of a wider resettlement scheme. isw.pub/UkrWar102522
2/ Kherson occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov claimed that occupation officials have moved over 22,000 people from the west bank of the Dnipro to the east bank and that the administration’s “resettlement program” (программа переселения) is designed to accommodate 60,000 people.
3/ Stremousov’s statement seemingly admits that #Russian occupation officials view the evacuations as precursors to the permanent resettlement of a large population of #Ukrainians.
"#Prigozhin holds a uniquely advantageous position within the Russian state structure and information space that allows him to expand his constituency in Russia more readily than the disgraced Russian higher military command." 🧵 isw.pub/UkrWar102422
3/ Prigozhin can freely promote himself & his forces while criticizing Kremlin officials/the Russian Armed Forces without fear of pushback. Putin depends on #Wagner forces in #Bakhmut & is likely attempting to appease Prigozhin despite his undermining of the conventional military