1/X So, some (unsystematic) remarks on #Putin's #Valdai speech: 1) Yes, he turned most of it into a rebel yell ag. the declining West, its arrogance, and attempts to maintain power. Much of that was instrumental yet based, actually, on fact. Don't like it? Complain to the...
2/X ... West for giving #Putin so much reality to work with. 2) Yes, he clearly tried to appeal to "another West" (and also another Europe) where he believes #Russia's position of multipolarity and cultural conservatism can find sympathy. So what? We, the West, see nothing...
3/X ...illegitimate in constantly appealing to what we see as "another Russia." Yes, same thing, like it or not. Two can play at that game. 3) Note: while calling for resistance to the West, he also insisted that the West as well would have a place in the new "multipolar...
4/X .... order," just on equal - and no longer hegemonic - terms. He also stressed that Russia is not "anti" any given nation; instead he rejected all forms of "xenophobia." 4) He made intriguing use of quotations (and thanked his aides for finding them), from Dostoyevsky...
5/X ... via Solzhenitsyn to, indeed (if implicitly) Marx/Engels etc. The Marx/Engels (or perhaps Lenin?) bit was most interesting because he used it to describe the international situation as "revolutionary," in that those "below" don't want to keep obeying and those "above"...
6/X ... don't want to give in. 7) He called for finding "common sense" solutions that would not be "ideal" but "would work." 8) His prediction for what will happen if we don't find such solutions was dire (but not, NOT a nuclear threat - of which has uttered far less than some...
7/X ... in the West claim (and no more than we do btw). 9) It is NOT true that he omitted the war in #Ukraine. Rather he spoke about it in detail in the Q+A w the moderator (def. no accident). I might do a second thread abt that part.
PS Make of the above what you will. Beware:..
8/X ... My Russian is v good. I've worked from the original, of course. I've looked for what seemed esp. important to me. NO politics. So: If you want to do some infowar/NAFO-policing here, get lost right away. Don't even try.
(Apologies for typos.)
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1/X a) The (current, large-scale) war between #Russia and #Ukraine has been predictable and predicted, for decades, actually; b) So, it is unlikely to be due to only one man; c) This war's potential for going global has also been clear; d) So: More than one state has been...
2/X ... willing to (at least) risk, perhaps even welcome some form of WW3. e) The war is, equally, clearly, therefore of all-humanity interest and everyone, literally, sharing this planet has a right to have a voice about it and how to end it, including with a compromise....
3/X ... f) It follows that arguments trying to assign a monopoly of deciding how this war can end to #Ukraine are intellectually and ethically fundamentally flawed. g) Those advancing such arguments are suspect of bad faith, since they are so obviously mistaken. e) Accusing...
1/x Thread: What COULD (!) a settlement in #Ukraine look like:
(Avant-propos: I'm all for argument but if you're here to nitpick or scream, get lost. Yes, the below would require bending rules. WTF does NOT? No, Ukraine cannot have everything it has a legal right to, duh)...
2/x ... a) Territory: Ukraine gets back: all of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Russia gets/keeps: all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea. b) International frame: Ukraine gets #EU membership (not tomorrow but today); Ukraine does NOT/NEVER get #NATO membership; Ukraine...
3/x ... becomes neutral instead; #NATO officially ends expansion (enlargement) forever or for a long period (say, 50 years); Ukraine gets massive reconstruction support and also retains a strong but defensively oriented army (hedgehog-style). c) Humanitarian aspects: Everyone...
@MarkRuffalo No, you are misinformed: Russia has escalated in February of this year by a war of aggression. Correct. But: The conflict does go back to 2014 and does have 2 (no, not 1) main sources: a) a domestic rebellion in #Ukraine's "far east" (and a brutal, inept Kyiv government ...
@MarkRuffalo ... that has been systematically obscured in the West) AND b) Russia's intervention (wrong then, wrong now). This means you cannot simply take Russia out of the picture and everything will be fine. Moreover, even Russia, with all its misdeeds, has one real concern. And that is...
@MarkRuffalo ... the perfectly needless and arbitrary policy of the "open door" to #Ukraine by #NATO. No, this is not a pretext. This is a substantial security issue for Russia. The USA would have handled its analogue with, actually, more violence, as I am sure you know. So THAT needs ...
1/4 My take on #Putin's "referenda" speech: a) I disagree with quite a lot of Western commentary. Here's why: b) It's not an aggrieved rant (Shaun Walker's reliably superficial and mediocre "taxi driver" interpretation). Instead it's a deliberate piece of rhetoric. Its core:...
2/4 ... Persuade his audience in #Russia that this is now a war about "the Russian way of life" (as Putin wants them to see it of course) and that it is inescapable. c) With an eye to non-Russian and non-Western audiences, a calculated attempt to position Russia as spearhead...
3/4... of an anti-Western rebellion/challenge. d) We may oc pick at the factual errors, hyperbole, and inconsistencies. But it's a mistake to dismiss this as a "cornered rant." The key question about a speech like that concerns its effect/efficiency. That remains to be seen....
1/X Thread w a few thoughts re the recent string of explosions in #Crimea. If you're interested 2 rules: a) READ THE WHOLE THING before you scream, b) Do NOT language-police (for instance, I KNOW #Russia is responsible for the whole invasion, but #Ukraine is still specifically...
2/X ... responsible for these explosions/attacks taking place now in #Crimea. Good? So here goes:
A) In legal terms, #Ukraine has every right to reconquer #Crimea. (No, the so-called "referendum" of 2014 makes no difference.)
B) Legal terms are only part of reality (ask the...
3/X ... #Palestinians, for instance. (No, recognizing that is NOT "cynicism," "blaming the victim" etc. - No bullshit here, please.)
C) Responsible politics MUST deal with all of reality.
D) #Russia sees (wrongly, but still) #Crimea as Russian.
E) #Ukraine has promised not...
1/4 This is a special one for those pretending re #RussianUkrainianWar that analysis and attention to human tragedy are zero-sum (me on 9 December LAST year): "A second cost that would affect both Ukraine and its neighbors would come with immense human tragedy: A large-scale...🧵
2/4... war would not only cost lives but also uproot large numbers of Ukrainian civilians. In fact, the country’s minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov, has recently warned of 3-5 million refugees in case of major war. He may, of course, be trying to scare the West, ...
3/4... especially the European Union, to shore up support for Kiev. But he still has a realistic point as well.
The same is true for his observation that both Russia and Ukraine are among the major global wheat exporters, with Russia the top exporter and Ukraine in fifth ...