Thread by @CryptoEdgar_

1/12 #StepN Rainbow sneakers

@Stepnofficial won't share exact numbers but wants us (the community) to gather data and make estimations.

This is my attempt at making an estimation based on on-chain data.

How many do I think are out there and how did I come to this number?👇

2/12 Rainbow sneakers were introduced on 12/10/2022.

We've seen individuals post amazing earnings on socials. But that doesn't paint a good picture of what's really out there.

But because earnings are so high, I believe that most rainbow holders will (partially) cash out daily.

https://twitter.com/Stepnofficial/status/1580043704081215493

3/12 The reasoning I've applied is the following:

* Grab all wallets that withdrew 1,000 or more #GMT on a daily basis from their spending account.
* Sort that list based on the amount of days they've been doing so.
* Show the total #GMT withdrawn.

4/12 Some clarifications:
This is for #Solana only. We could do a similar approach on #BSC and #Ethereum but I believe we'll have a better, initial, understanding when doing so on #Solana

These are my initial findings and I'll be thinking of ways to improve the estimation.

5/12 I believe that a typical way of tracking down Rainbow sneaker holders is by finding behaviours such as the one shown below (taken from @solscanofficial -> solscan.io/account/BAYtN9…)

* #GMT comes in from #StepN spending wallet
* #GMT is sent out to another wallet or #DEX

6/12 One last thing: We don't care about wallet that have withdrawn once or twice. There's no pattern.

Let's put that reasoning down in a @DuneAnalytics query and see what we come up with:

dune.com/crypto_edgar/s…

7/12 There are 67 wallets that qualify.

The top 2 wallets have been withdrawing for 18 days straight from their spending account (which is basically around the time rainbow sneakers came out).

They've (together) withdrawn +/- 193k #GMT

8/12 It's safe to say that a higher amount of days withdrawing strengthens the pattern and increases the chances of these being wallets of actual rainbow sneaker holders.

For this reason I'd place a safe bet on +/- 50 rainbow sneaker holders which are withdrawing #GMT daily.

9/12 We can see that on average (by all potential rainbow holders together) +/- 250k #GMT is withdrawn on a daily basis.

This number seems to be pretty stable as an increase in rainbow holders will push down the earnings of earlier rainbow holders.

10/12 Also, in total, +/- 3.3M #GMT was withdrawn by wallets that qualify to the requirements above and are thus flagged as potential rainbow sneaker holders.

I'll make sure to improve the queries and improve accuracy.

Let me know if you can think of any other approaches.

11/12 I hope you've found this thread helpful even though we had to make some assumptions based on the data we've got.

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