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Oct 30 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
The #Kremlin reportedly relieved the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander #Lapin, of his position as the commander of the “central” group of forces in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar102922
2/ The #Kremlin has not officially confirmed #Lapin’s relief as of October 29, prompting the rise of contradictory reports across Kremlin-sponsored outlets and Telegram channels. It is unclear whether Lapin was also relieved of his command of the Central Military District.
3/ @TheStudyofWar cannot independently confirm the reports of #Lapin’s dismissal, but the deluge of conflicting reports may indicate that the #Kremlin is struggling to control the narrative regarding its higher military command.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Oct 31
The Russian partial mobilization of reservists just completed strongly suggests that #Putin intends to keep fighting into 2023 rather than expecting to secure some sort of ceasefire or to escalate in a way that could end the war on his terms. isw.pub/UkrWar103022 Image
2/ #Putin has paid a very high domestic price for this mobilization effort in the flight of hundreds of thousands of Russians to other countries, unprecedented protests, and equally unprecedented criticisms of the performance of the Russian military and the Russian government.
3/ This price makes sense if #Putin intends to keep fighting and recognizes the need to get reinforcements to #Ukraine right now in order to hold his positions long enough for fresh conscripts to arrive and turn the tide in his favor, as he might think.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 31
Russian force-generation efforts will occur over the course of several predictable time periods, starting with Russia's autumn conscription cycle, which begins November 1.🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar103022
2/ Putin has declared that the “partial mobilization” of reservists is complete. That declaration means that, in principle, the Russian military will stop calling up reservists and instead focus on completing their brief training periods before sending them to fight in Ukraine.
3/ @TheStudyofWar previously assessed that most of the remaining called-up reservists will arrive in the theater of war over the next few weeks.
Read 23 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 31
#Putin will most likely try to continue conventional military operations in #Ukraine to hold currently occupied territories, gain new ground, and set conditions for the collapse of Western support for Ukraine that he likely expects to occur this winter. isw.pub/UkrWar103022
2/ #Putin has likely not abandoned hopes of achieving his maximalist aims in #Ukraine through conventional military means, which he is pursuing in parallel with efforts to break Ukraine’s will to fight and the West’s will to continue supporting #Kyiv.
3/ #Putin is unlikely to escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons barring the sudden collapse of the Russian military permitting Ukrainian forces to make uncontrolled advances throughout the theater. Such a situation is possible but unlikely.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 30
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

The #Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults on Pershotravneve, Tabaivka, and Berestove in #Kharkiv Oblast. /1
isw.pub/UkrWar103022 Image
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian sources and geolocated reports indicate that #Russian forces destroyed a bridge over the Krasna River in Krasnorichenske, #Luhansk Oblast. /2
isw.pub/UkrWar103022
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Vodyane, #Donetsk Oblast, (4km northwest of Donetsk International Airport) on October 30. /3
isw.pub/UkrWar103022 Image
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 29
Russian President Vladimir #Putin declared the end of Russian military mobilization on October 28, likely to free up administrative and training capacity in time for the delayed start of the Russian autumn conscription cycle beginning on November 1. isw.pub/UkrWar102822
2/ Defense Minister Sergei #Shoigu, who joined #Putin, stated that #Russia mobilized 300K men, 82K of whom are deployed in #Ukraine and 218K of whom are training at Russian training grounds. Putin stated that 41K of the 82K servicemen in Ukraine are serving in combat units.
3/ #Russia‘s now-completed mobilization is unlikely to decisively impact Russian combat power. isw.pub/UkrWar102822
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 29
NEW: #Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines in #Ukraine.

isw.pub/UkrWar102822
2/ A Russian information operation is pushing the narrative that Russian forces are making significant progress in #Bakhmut, likely to improve morale and possibly the personal standing of #Prigozhin, whose #Wagner forces are largely responsible for the minimal gains in the area.
3/ Russian forces have made limited advances towards the Ukrainian strong point in #Bakhmut but at a languid speed and a significant cost.
Read 6 tweets

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