Thread by @JBelcourt73

I pointed out yesterday that if #Ukrainian claims are true, #Russia is losing a brigade's worth of troops a day now. 800-1000 dead and x2 (my estimate based on shitty Russian medical support) wounded, missing, captured and deserted. This will add up to about a corps's worth

of troops removed from the Russian OOB every 10-15 days. That is not sustainable not even if many of the troops are in fact (and likely) dragooned Ukrainians. Russia set out to mobilize 300,000 men. The current loss rate will exhaust that cadre by December. Given how poorly the

first mobilization went, the chances of a second are poor. The next wave of reinforcements Russia can look forward too is the spring cadre of kids reaching their majority and subject to conscription. There is some room here if Russia can find some efficiency they could increase

the haul of young men forced into uniform. Combing out of prisons and forced conscription of foreigners and marginalized groups is likely continuing and will not stop until all the jails are empty and Russia's homeless problem is extinguished. The body count though is only part

problem. Russia is also running out of equipment. refitting T-62's, bumming ammo, tanks and drones off Iran, Belarus and North Korea all say Russia is choking to death on the bite it tried to take out of Ukraine. They are trying to eat an elephant with a spoon. The problem for

empires that decide to have pachyderm for dinner is it invites others to challenge. We have been seeing this for awhile as Lukashenko and Tokayev chart paths that if not free from Russia are much less tightly defined by Russian interests and goals. We saw more of it when

Azerbaijan decided now was a good time to wage war against Russia's ally Armenia. Now we have our first direct challenge. Russia tried to pull of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Turkey said no and Russia had to meekly submit to Turkish desires. Putin was reduced to begging

Ukraine to stop sinking its battleships. Of note Putin did not declare the #BlackSeaFleet out of the war. He still wants to murder Ukrainians, he just doesn't like comes around goes around part of it. All of it though: his army foundering, his vassals going off script,

surrendering de facto control of the #BlackSea to Turkey all say that even if the Russian Empire is not yet collapsing, the Russian Imperial order in its near abroad is. This has happened before. After WWI Russia lost Poland, Ukraine, The Baltics, Moldavia, Finland and parts of

Asia. They got much of it back at least for awhile but in 91 there was another general collapse of the Russian imperial order. Putin's life work has been directed towards two goals" physically reforming the Russian Empire where he could, and imposing a Russian Imperial order over

the Russian near abroad. Diplomacy, disruptive colonies and "peoples" republics, graft and corruption but also violence and war if all else failed. Well its failing and now Putin is faced with a now what. The biggest threat to Russia's current borders are not external but

internal pressures. Colonized people can be very loyal to the empire. Just ask the Brits who relied on troops from India and Pakistan during two world wars. Or France and Germany for that matter. You might even claim that native American and Black troops who fought for the US

fall into this category. The British and French examples though show the warning. As soon as the colonial troops lose faith in the imperial system nationalist and separatist tendencies will emerge. I think this is one of the next big shoes to drop. Kadyrov is already punching

up so who knows what kind of ambitions or internal polling he has but there are how many ethnic groups in Russia? Many, none of them treated well and all of them are just a bit of imperial weakness away from at least thinking that this might be their moment to throw off the yoke.

How do we help this along? Proceeding from the assumption that empire is bad and that people deserve self-determination how do we hasten the end of the world's oldest colonial empire? The obvious answer is by making sure it cannot grow larger. Support for Ukraine both by western

political leaders like my own state's @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill who back @POTUS as he backs Ukraine and by private giving to groups like @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua, @UkraineAidOps and @3xR_team

or direct giving to Ukrainians running their own fund raising efforts like @Teoyaomiquu. The more Russia sinks in the quagmire that is Ukraine the faster her enslaved will reach the boiling point and say enough is enough. Now I get that a lot of talking heads don't want that.

Think tank types that are hostile to Russia and Kleptogradian stooges that would like nothing better than a Russian victory will likely be aligned on the issue of keep Russia Russian. Both are likely to be vocal and trying to sway opinion and this could directly impact support

for Ukraine. Stay informed and stay alert. One place where you will not be fed any BS about needing to keep the empire whole is on @MriyaReport / mriyareport.org Everyone one of us there is a true anti-imperialist and anti-colonialist.

Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! #RussiaIsATerroristState #RussiaIsLosing #RussiaUkraineWar #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin @mfa_russia <--- still losing and a Russian rump state is coming.

@mfa_russia @threadreaderapp unroll please