1/ RU officials ordered the residents of #Beryslav, #Берислав in #Kherson Oblast, to leave by November 10. Allegedly the main reason for this forced evac is the alleged possible destruction by the #UAarmy of the dam that is (south) & below level.. in #NovaKakhovka
2/ the fact that #Russia will blow the hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka was reported by #Ukraine military command who explained also about the forced evacuation of population along the Dnipro river was an ongoing process..
3/ also we need to take into account the report that #Ukraine would have shelled few hours earlier this famous dam. Nova Kakhovka dam damaged in shelling was allegedly due to counter battery action in response of Ru using this precise location to shell UKr lines in their back (?)
4/ reminder of diff opinion down below about the importance of the dam and why Ru could still want to destroy it.


6/ so at one point we had the report that Blowing the #NovaKakhovka dam a would cause a 5 meter tall flood surge that would kill thousands of people... just murdering all people in #Kherson but since then UKR officials have explained the level of the reserve has been lowered.
7/ and actually right now it would look like more a bad version of Paris 1913 type of Flood in #Kherson and surroundings area
8/ so basically and to be precise here because a lots of fantasies are running wild out there, this is a precise 3D topo color map of #Kherson and surroundings and what would be the true areas that would be impacted if water would rise by couple meters (but anyway would not be
9/ that terrible and also would not long last right now... we could talk week to 10 days of inconvenience...
but then Russian would need to certainly to restore some of the infrastructures in order to have their own use of the dam to Crimea..
10/ so if you had this kind of map in mind.. you are allow to through up and put it in the bin.
because this is pure heavy stupid sh....
like for the Oskil dam... nothing disastrous happened down the river back then when destroyed.
11/ so when you have specialist telling you this kind of things... (down below) it's not true. it's much more complicated.
but what we are witnessing now is a stupid game like we saw around #ZaporizhzhiaNPP and all crazy shelling taking place...
12/ as i explained here back then..
Boudonov explained in plain words that RU did not put enough explosives to destroy all the dam but only the part to cripple some materials (as they love doing) & part of the road/dam in order to cut Ukr advance if needed
13/ and right now, >>Ru are just using this "advantageous" location in order to shell as much as possible UKr positions & then they can also communicate on the fact that UKr are trying to destroy ths infrastructure. but clearly they are the one, engaging some stupid actions there
14/ some news outlet now reporting it would be #Himars... but NONE of them showing any signs of #russians claims...
so this is bad journalism
#NovaKakhovka

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More from @HeliosRunner

Nov 4
1/ #Russian forces today, more than yesterday are trying to push forward in major counterattacks on the frontline south west of #Svatove
They are losing a lots of men right now there.
Ru MOD ordered to push back Ukr far from the highway. do not care about casualties.
2/ @serhey_hayday partial reports about it
3/ RU continue to shell all the de-occupied villages of Luhansk Oblast. It is extremely dangerous to be there.
Enemy artillery works around the clock.
Therefore, civilians should leave these settlements for their own safety.
Military, volunteers & police r helping with the evacs
Read 9 tweets
Nov 4
mais bien sur ma petite saloperie...
on a bien compris le fond de ta pensée ne t'en fais surtout pas... on a bien compris.
C'est "Drôle" qu'il ne parles pas de la couleur de la peau des camarades qui s'engagent à la @LegionEtrangere par exemple..
3/ action/réaction
en démocratie.. mais ça c'est sur, ça emmerde le RN
Read 4 tweets
Nov 2
1/ So this morning i've received again (same for last couple of weeks) a lot of questions about the raise of the alleged Ru "liquidated" personnel..
so.. let me try to explain, for the last time the diff reasons about what could bring such a "raise" in this account line.
2/ first of all, we all know by now, that RU have sent in Ukr much more "new" soldiers (sometimes guys with only a couple months of real training when being conscript years ago) and being send as reported by all accounts in the first line to help the "senior" soldiers to spot Ukr
3/ positions. (i know this is definitely not what you should do & what we do in western countries, but it's the reality in Ru army. the "senior" are sending the new one in the front line or as direct scout. )
Also there were for the last couple of months a lot of PMC Wagner
Read 21 tweets
Nov 2
1/ first of all that an official "count" - we don't know for sure what the numbers are. Always better not to show all your really wounds
Second, instead of couple days to replace some parts, here & there, 300kg explo warhead will create real damages, much more harder to "fix".
2/ also if these drones are much more "agile" and fast, it could lower the rate of "interception".
then if it's only couple hundreds to deal with, sure thing Ukr will handle it.
if thousands hit real important target, winter is really gonna be hard, because Ru will try to go
3/ on with it's strategy of infrastructures destruction in order to create an economy collapse, in big cities, and also to force massive exodus (one more time) if in January there is no elec/water while -5°C
Putin will never stop this strategy as long as he can.
so maybe as US
Read 4 tweets
Nov 1
...Encore une "petite" journée hier...
j'espère juste que nous sommes toujours ds des comptes bien "encadrés" comme durant cet été..
(hormis le personnel, j'ai fait un thread sur le sujet)
2/ Gen staff first report (part of)
main pressure from russian and confirmation of some areas still under Ukr defense positions..
3/ petit "cadeau" avant de partir.. (fais beau)
long time i've not done this.. (usually with Ru Mod)
Giving you a true "proper" translation of (FSB) Ru "reporter" famous wargoogoo (i don't speak his name here) just to show you the way THEY are doing reports🥲😅😉
Enjoy!
Read 8 tweets

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