Cas Mudde Profile picture
Nov 8 23 tweets 6 min read
Happy #VotingDay to all US citizens!

These #Midterms have so many things to focus on that it is truly overwhelming. Here are some of the things I will be focusing on. #Thread 🧵
1. It is broadly expected that the Democrats will lose the House. If this happens, expect the House to oppose and sabotage the Biden admin in the next two years. Also expect endless Impeachment procedures against Biden and others.
2. The real question about the House, assuming Dems lose it, is how many new openly anti-democratic Republicans (election deniers, QAnon supporters, etc.) will join the already significant faction of them in the House.
3. A side story is whether/how many extremist candidates will lose relatively safe Republican seats. TBH, I am no confident there will be many, because of gerrymandering, partisan sorting, and radicalization of GOP electorate, but it could still happen.
4. As only some 10% of all House seats are competitive, the Senate races are more exciting. Here, Trump-endorsed outsiders (Oz, Vance, Walker) are possibly threatening a Republican take-over.
5. Predictions for Senate range from Reps taking it to Dems extending their lead to 52.

IF Reps take both House & Senate, Impeachment of Biden will become spectacle in both houses, even if actual Impeachment is unlikely.

That said, in this case Biden presidency is over.
6. Should Dems increase their hold on Senate, this would significantly weaken the obstructive power of right-wing Dems like Manchin and Sinema.
7. If Dems increase their hold on Senate, it also means some Trump-endorsed outsiders have lost races that Reps feel could have been won.

While this won't mean a turn to the center, it would (further) weaken Trump within the party - and possibly strengthen DeSantis.
8. There are also a lot of gubernatorial races being fought today. Governors are powerful in federal system, as #COVID19 pandemic has shown. They can help derail and frustrate federal policies. But with SCOTUS defending "state rights", governors are becoming even more powerful.
9. For academics like me, who work at a public institution, governors are de facto our boss and given increasingly anti-academia agenda of GOP, this makes gubernatorial races about our jobs. In various red states academic freedom and tenure are being attacked.
10. Some of the most high-profile gubernatorial races are Arizona and Pennsylvania, where extremist Reps run, but also Oregon, where a Phil Knight bankrolled spoiler Democrat could give the governorship to a Republican.
11. #Georgia will be on everyone's mind. I expect a clear victory for Kemp (governor) and a run-off for Warnock (Senate), which he could win, as Walker will profit from down-ballot voting of Kemp supporters who won't come out for Walker alone.
12. Despite the enormous significance of #Midterms itself, today's elections are also a practice run for 2024 presidential elections - particularly, but not exclusively, for Trumpers.
13. GOP has passed many laws that make it harder to vote and harder to count all votes today. As always, these laws target districts that favor Democratic Party.
14. In several cases, early and mail votes can only be counted later, which means Republicans will lead initially - as they disproportionally vote on election day (and have been explicitly encouraged to do so this year).
15. There is fear that Republican candidates will declare victory early, after most election day votes have been counted, and then cry foul when Dems will win on basis of mostly early and mail votes.
16. Expect also various legal challenges to election results, particularly in some big cities (with large non-white electorates). It is here that Reps will test how strong election denier support on Electoral Commissions, state legislatures, and state courts is.
17. Ironically, 2020 elections were the best executed US elections I ever experienced, but also the most contested. Only on-third (!) of all Republican candidates in #Midterms accept "to some extent" that 2020 elections were free and fair.
18. #Midterms are a true test of US democracy, not just in terms of the outcome but also in terms of process. While US elections have never been truly "free and fair", there is serious worry about them this year, in a growing number of GOP-controlled districts and states.
19. While I do not expect serious violence, I do not rule it out either. What we will see for sure, as we have been seeing since 2020, is clear intimidation of both voters and election workers.
20. I feel for all pro-democracy election workers - and worry about growing presence of election deniers - and really hope all will be safe today and in the coming weeks/months. It is crucial to both democracy and rule of law than all election workers are protected by state!
21. For those of you watching the results tonight, please remember: early results, based on small percentages of counted votes, are meaningless, particularly now that early and mail voting is so high.
22. Irrespective of whether GOP wins or loses, it will move again further to the right and away from (not just liberal) democracy. Many centrists still don't grasp how fundamental this challenge to US democracy is, focusing exclusively on Trump & DVE. Maybe after today? #TheEnd

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More from @CasMudde

Nov 9
Media are reporting on early + mail voting by district, often 50-60% of the total vote. So far, Dems poll only slightly higher than Biden in 2020 in FL and GA. Unanswered question: is Election Day bias (R > D) still the same. If so, numbers look bad. If not, there is hope.
Marco Rubio 7% ahead after early + mail votes (58%) in Miami-Dade, which was carried by Dems in 2020 and 2016. Given Reps tend to vote more on Election Day, this is very bad news…
Early + mail voting in Fulton County shows significant (3%) gap between support for Warnock and Abrams. Still smaller than most polls but I still expect Kemp to win in first round and Warnock in run-off.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 14
#Sweden was never special. It was just a few decades behind the European curve. Radical right #SwedenDemocrats will support right-wing coalition, which already adopted many of its frames and issues. A few quick thoughts. 🧵…
1. Support for a minority government does not necessarily lead to full participation or long-term mainstreaming. DF in Denmark never entered government formally, while PVV because ostracized after support for Rutte 1.
2. Influence of radical right is often more before than during coalition. Point is not just whether coalition agreement reflects current Moderates more than current SD. Current M reflects previous SD!
Read 11 tweets
Oct 12
Adios Chile! Hasta luego! 🇨🇱 ImageImageImageImage
Ok @ATLairport , maybe you don’t have the most incompetent border control after all. Image
In fact, they have now officially surpassed ATL. We are now moving into Montreal territory.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2
I've seen enough. Worst possible #Lula victory in first-round of #brazilianelections today. Much more worried now for second round for the following reasons.

#Eleicoes2022 #Thread 🧵
1. #Lula wins 47%-48%, which is in line with average of polls. So, this is good, but...

His lead over Bolsonaro is just 3-4%.
2. #Bolsonaro wins 43%-44%, which is 5-10% more than most polls predicted.

@BrazilBrian had said that some experts had been skeptical about the polls. I doubt they expected such a difference.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 1
Games of @PSV and @borussia back to back now. Have been looking forward to this for two weeks… might regret that soon enough. ❤️🤍🖤
Comical 1-0 for Cambuur. EVERYONE fails. Starting to think Benitez wasn’t a very good choice either.
2-0 Cambuur. Game over. Deserved win of team that lost last four games against team that somehow ended up top of the league with one great game.

I’m not a fan of changing coaches early on but Van Nistelrooij is clearly not ready yet for this level. Terrible exchanges. #CAMPSV
Read 5 tweets
Sep 21
I am getting a lot of emails about "the rise of the far right in Europe" the last days. That generally means that there are two countries that gained broader attention in which the far right does well. But how significant is this "rise" really? #thread 🧵
In Sweden 🇸🇪, #SwedenDemocrats gained 3% compared to 2018. Taking into account slightly lower turnout, it was actually 2%.

2022: 20.5% x 84.2% = 17.26%
2018: 17.5% x 87.1% = 15.24%
In France, Marine Le Pen gained effectively (% of electorate) just o.6% in 1st round and 4.6% in 2nd round.

2022: 23.2% x 73.7% = 17.2%
2017: 21.3% x 77.8% = 16.6%

2022: 41.5% x 72.0% = 29.9%
2017: 33.9% x 74.6% = 25.3%
Read 11 tweets

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