Mixed bag of UK labour market data... (short 🧵)
#Unemployment rate down on the quarter but up on the month, and flattered by rise in number of people no longer actively looking for work (incl. long-term sick)
#Employment rate (first chart 👇) still below pre-Covid levels...
#Unemployment rate down on the quarter but up on the month, and flattered by rise in number of people no longer actively looking for work (incl. long-term sick)
#Employment rate (first chart 👇) still below pre-Covid levels...
Earnings data a little better than expected: average total #pay (incl. bonuses) rose 6.0% in 3m to September and regular pay (excl. bonuses) by 5.7%, although still falling in real terms.
And early PAYE estimates for October point to a 6.0% increase in median pay last month...
And early PAYE estimates for October point to a 6.0% increase in median pay last month...
Payroll #employment rose another 74,000 in October and remains on strong upward trend.
But separate Labour Force Survey suggests total employment (incl. self-employment) is much weaker.
Both measures have pros and cons - take your pick!
But separate Labour Force Survey suggests total employment (incl. self-employment) is much weaker.
Both measures have pros and cons - take your pick!
Overall, something for everyone here.
My own take is that the strength of the labour market remains a bright spot in the UK economy and is one less reason to fear a deep #recession. But usual caveat applies - it can be a lagging indicator.
My own take is that the strength of the labour market remains a bright spot in the UK economy and is one less reason to fear a deep #recession. But usual caveat applies - it can be a lagging indicator.
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