Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Russian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall #conscription cycle is underway, likely further flooding the already overburdened Russian force generation apparatus.

isw.pub/UkrWar111822

2/ Russian Telegram channels actively discussed indicators on November 18 that the #Kremlin is preparing for a second mobilization wave...

...and circulated an image of a draft summons received by a citizen of St. Petersburg who was reportedly told to appear for mobilization in January 2023 despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the formal end of partial mobilization on October 31.

3/ An independent Russian outlet published an investigation on November 18 showing that state structures and enterprises are continuing to prepare their employees for mobilization by sending them to various training programs and mobilization-related educational courses.

4/ Another Russian outlet noted that the Odintsovo garrison military court in Moscow Oblast inadvertently confirmed that mobilization is continuing despite its formal end.

The court reportedly accused a mobilized soldier of beating his commander on November 13 “during the performance of his duties of military service or in connection with the performance of these duties during the period of mobilization,”

...which indicates that the court is operating on the legal basis that mobilization is still underway.

Russian nationalist milbloggers additionally circulated claims that general mobilization will begin in December or January.

5/ The continuation of covert mobilization efforts and potential preparations for another mobilization wave in tandem with the current fall conscription cycle is likely adding substantial strain to an already over-burdened Russian force generation apparatus.

6/ As @TheStudyofWar previously assessed, #Putin likely ordered the end of partial mobilization in order to free up bureaucratic and administrative capacity for the November 1 conscription class.

7/ However, it is evident that Russian authorities never fully halted mobilization efforts, which means that a limited number of mobilized recruits are still being forced through the training system at the same time as conscripts are going through their own training cycle.

8/ This will likely lead to even lower quality training for both mobilized recruits and conscripts as they compete for insufficient training capacity.

9/ Another wave of mobilization in the coming months will only worsen the situation and likely degrade the overall quality of the Russian troops that will be funneled to the frontline in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar111822