Thread by @JBelcourt73

The pictures showing the carnage of #Bakhmut are straight from Flanders 1917... Chewed up ground and bodies lying row by row where they were mowed down like grass. Then there is the video of the SU-30S going down in flames. Add in yesterday's video showing a KAMAZ truck

that was turned into a sieve and the picture is pretty clear: #Russia is fucked. While I am very happy that Russia finds itself in this position, it didn't have to be this way. Had Russia stayed the course it started in 2012 and not brought Shoigu to the fore the war likely would

have gone much differently and might well be over by now. A decade's worth of real reform and re-arming would have made the Russian's much better at what they tried to do. Even if they were only twice as good (still bad by Western standards) and started a month later or earlier

with dry ground the weak state #Ukraine was in at the time would have radically changed the war. Luckily for all outside of Russia instead of developing new leadership cultures, acquiring functional weapons and stressing soldier skills we got rampant corruption that torched

Russian ambitions. Ukraine on the other hand had started its reforms later following the 14-15 war. It was far from realized, totally rebuilding a military culture is a work of decades. Until the last private retires as a senior non-com and the last junior officer retires as a

COTGS there is something left of the old way of doing things. With one exception: high intensity war. Nothing motivates like pain. Losing men and officers by the ton load is usually very motivating to do things different. It certainly was for Ukraine. They mobalized somewhere

between 700K-1 million men. Some like previously trained reservists and territorial units were thriown straight into the fight. There was no choice. But tens to hundreds of thousands were held back, re-equipped, retrained along a more effective model and turned from a gaggle into

a scapple. #Ukrainian units getting these conscripts knew they were being given potential not bodies. Well trained, well equipped (by pre-war standards) and by all appearances well lead the blend of pre-war soldiers, reservists, territorials and conscripts has managed to eject

Russia from half the lands it occupied after Feb 24. The picture could not be more different on the #Russian side. With the decision makers insulated from the horrors and attrition of the front the Russian Army is frozen in its pre-war format. Conscripts who don't know how to

soldier, junior officers who don't know how to lead and field grade officers totally disconnected from what the reality at the front is. It takes real work not to learn the lessons of combat. Yet here we are, fields of bodies around Bakhmut. I am no general, I have no secret

sources, just a quick mind a good read of history and an ability to look forward by looking at previous trends. What we are seeing around Bakhmut reminds me of only 1 previous battle in all of human history: Verdun. In 1916 the Germans thought they could bleed the French white.

after some initial success that back footed the French the French adapted and learned. The Germans didn't and in the end the Germans ended up spending their last force capable of offensive operations in the West until 1918 on fruitless counter attacks. Combined with the need to

respond to British pressure on the Somme 1916 was really the year that Germany lost the war because she lost the cream of her army. Thats Bakhmut today. An attacker tries to force a positional battle but fails to adapt to the situation as it changes and itself becomes stuck in a

disadvantageous positional fight and bled white by its own obtuseness. Russia's mobilization netted Putin 200-330K troops. Did he instruct his army to go over to the defensive as everyone outside of Russia predicted? Everyone thought he would take time to train up this windfall

of manpower and use the lull by not attacking to make a strong play at defending #Kherson. Everyone was wrong. Instead, we saw Putin used these untrained conscripts and #Wagner penal units in human wave attacks. The Russian army was defeated before the gates of #Kyiv, the areas

of the Kharkiv Oblast and the retreat from Kherson, but it's moral glue is dying outside Bakhmut. Armies don't bounce back from that quickly at all. It took the French months to fix the problems that lead to the mutiny of 1917. It very nearly cost the British Army its moral glue

covering for them with the senseless attacks at Passchendaele, but the factors that let the French reglue and let the British hang on don't exists for the Russian Army. Now winter is here, and I am going to be honest, I don't know when, I don't know what the trigger is going to

be, but the Russian Army is going to shatter. Putin is no Stalin able to rally a beaten mob outside the gates of Moscow. When it breaks the Russian Army will have no compelling reason to turn and fight, Ukraine is not going to invade Russia, they know that: their wives, mothers

and children will not face wars desolation because they ran away. The only way to stop the impending doom is to stop the dying for no gain. Given that past is prologue I think the chances of Putin saying, "ok that's enough" is closer to zero than one. That of course means there

is a very real silver lining. The US is trying to authorize another $37 billion in aid and Europe is sending more as well. The better and more effective the Ukrainians get, the faster the Russian moral glue falls apart. We in the West must keep arming Ukraine. Thats the message I

tag @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill with every day. Send more, send better, and send it now. Of course kicking the Russian army out of Ukraine won't stop the missile strikes, won't free the captive and kidnapped Ukrainians inside Russia buts it s a huge start

towards achieving those goals. However, before we can free the captives, we must feed, warm and care for the millions of Ukrainians Russia has not yet managed to kill, deport or cause to flee. Private donations are critical. Give what you can to any worthwhile charity you believe

in: @Teoyaomiquu and his fund raisers, @U24_gov_ua (maybe for the #NAFO #FELLA funded naval drone), @MriyaAid, @UkraineAidOps, @3xR_team just pick one and give. Or maybe you want to support a more kinetic type of charity. Well the @georgian_legion and @belwarriors always have

needs waiting to be filled. Or maybe sned a personal message via @SignMyRocket, or buy some swag from @saintjavelin ... So many ways to have a meaningful impact in Ukraine. Of course this war is also multi-domain. So fight back against Russian dis-info, bonk away and stay

informed via sources like @MriyaReport. Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! #RussiaIsATerroristState #RussianArmy @mfa_russia <--- still losing and you owe a lot of Russian and Ukrainian mothers an apology for being evil little shits.

@threadreaderapp unroll please