๐ปโ๏ธโ๏ธโ๏ธโ๏ธโ ๏ธ๐ฉ๐บ๐ป๐งฎ ๐ฐ
Global Macro Review
11/20/2022
๐งต 1/7
#Recession cometh
Are you positioned accordingly?
Chart: Conference Board Leading Economic Index -3.2% over the past 6 months conference-board.org/topics/us-leadโฆ
Global Macro Review
11/20/2022
๐งต 1/7
#Recession cometh
Are you positioned accordingly?
Chart: Conference Board Leading Economic Index -3.2% over the past 6 months conference-board.org/topics/us-leadโฆ
1a/7
The 10Y3M treasury spread, as a standalone indicator, has predicted recession with 98% accuracy.
Chart: 10Y3M Treasury Spread to -52 bps
The 10Y3M treasury spread, as a standalone indicator, has predicted recession with 98% accuracy.
Chart: 10Y3M Treasury Spread to -52 bps
1b/7
According to this Richmond Fed article, when both the LEI and 10Y3M are flashing #recession, there is a 99% chance of recession ahead.
richmondfed.org/publications/rโฆ
Chart: Recession Indicators
According to this Richmond Fed article, when both the LEI and 10Y3M are flashing #recession, there is a 99% chance of recession ahead.
richmondfed.org/publications/rโฆ
Chart: Recession Indicators
1c/7
And yet the @AtlantaFed $GDPNow model is forecasting +4.2% for 4Q 2022
๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ
And yet the @AtlantaFed $GDPNow model is forecasting +4.2% for 4Q 2022
๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ
https://twitter.com/AtlantaFed/status/1593275319309377537?s=20&t=kyKSrN0eGa6gu9up0tW8qg
2/7
Long Treasury ETFs have started to show signs of life (meaning recession) over the past month (m) but still bearish Trend (T)
$IEF +3.21% (m) -6.25% (T)
$TLT +6.94% (m) -11.85% (T)
Chart: $TLT +1.79% for the week with some work to do to get back to โ๏ธ Trend
Long Treasury ETFs have started to show signs of life (meaning recession) over the past month (m) but still bearish Trend (T)
$IEF +3.21% (m) -6.25% (T)
$TLT +6.94% (m) -11.85% (T)
Chart: $TLT +1.79% for the week with some work to do to get back to โ๏ธ Trend
3/7
Energy took it on the chin this week with $WTIC back to contango and reinforcing #recession coming
$WTIC -5.81% (m) -11.42% (T)
$GASO -4.86% (m) -15.77% (T)
Chart: $GASO -8.01% (w) and back to critical support @ 2.35
Energy took it on the chin this week with $WTIC back to contango and reinforcing #recession coming
$WTIC -5.81% (m) -11.42% (T)
$GASO -4.86% (m) -15.77% (T)
Chart: $GASO -8.01% (w) and back to critical support @ 2.35
3a/7
Dr. $COPPER got the memo this week, after chasing false hopes of #ChinaReopening
$COPPER +4.61% (m) -0.82% (T)
Chart: $COPPER slammed -7.19% for the week
Dr. $COPPER got the memo this week, after chasing false hopes of #ChinaReopening
$COPPER +4.61% (m) -0.82% (T)
Chart: $COPPER slammed -7.19% for the week
3b/7
$GOLD typically performs well during recessionary environments as market starts to reduce long duration yields
$GOLD +5.92% (m) -0.48% (T)
Chart: $GOLD -0.85% after breaking the downtrend convincingly the previous week
$GOLD typically performs well during recessionary environments as market starts to reduce long duration yields
$GOLD +5.92% (m) -0.48% (T)
Chart: $GOLD -0.85% after breaking the downtrend convincingly the previous week
4/7
After correcting 6.94% from the closing high of 9/27/22, the $USD found support at ~106
$USD -4.25% (m) -1.17% (T)
Chart: $USD +0.63% (w)
After correcting 6.94% from the closing high of 9/27/22, the $USD found support at ~106
$USD -4.25% (m) -1.17% (T)
Chart: $USD +0.63% (w)
5/7
Under hedged equity investors have pushed the $SPX higher on every sign that #CPI and #PPI are slowing
$SPX +5.66% (m) -6.22% (T)
$COMPQ +2.64% (m) -12.27% (T)
$IWM +5.8% (m) -6.13% (T)
Chart: $SPX +14% from the opening low of 3520 on 10/13/11
Under hedged equity investors have pushed the $SPX higher on every sign that #CPI and #PPI are slowing
$SPX +5.66% (m) -6.22% (T)
$COMPQ +2.64% (m) -12.27% (T)
$IWM +5.8% (m) -6.13% (T)
Chart: $SPX +14% from the opening low of 3520 on 10/13/11
6/7
Meanwhile, the Fed - committed to a 2% inflation ๐ฏ - continues to drain ๐ฆ from the ๐๐ฅฃ
Chart: The Federal Reserve balance sheet has declined by -3.8% to 8.62 Trillion since peak liquidity in April
Meanwhile, the Fed - committed to a 2% inflation ๐ฏ - continues to drain ๐ฆ from the ๐๐ฅฃ
Chart: The Federal Reserve balance sheet has declined by -3.8% to 8.62 Trillion since peak liquidity in April
So, folks, whether you call it #quad4 or #deflation, both growth and inflation are slowing
Itโs time to get your #recession play ๐ out
Short $SPY $QQQ $IWM
Short $DBC $DBB
Long $GLD
Long $TLT, $IEF, $BILS
Long $USD
Keep it simple and have a super profitable ๐ฐ week!
Itโs time to get your #recession play ๐ out
Short $SPY $QQQ $IWM
Short $DBC $DBB
Long $GLD
Long $TLT, $IEF, $BILS
Long $USD
Keep it simple and have a super profitable ๐ฐ week!
โข โข โข
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