NEW: The #Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in #Belgorod Oblast, #Russia, likely in an effort to regain public support for the war in #Ukraine.
isw.pub/UkrWar112222
isw.pub/UkrWar112222
2/ #Kremlin propagandists have begun hypothesizing that Ukrainian forces seek to invade #Belgorod Oblast, and other Russian sources noted that Russian forces need to regain control over Kupyansk, #Kharkiv Oblast, to minimize the threat of a Ukrainian attack.
3/ Russian claims of an imminent Ukrainian attack on #Belgorod Oblast are absurd and only aim to scare the general public to support the war. #Ukraine has no strategic interest in invading #Russia and no ability to do so at such a scale.
4/ These ridiculous speculations about a fantastical Ukrainian invasion of #Russia may also be part of the Kremlin’s effort to acknowledge and appease the Russian pro-war nationalist community.
5/ Russian milbloggers have repeatedly accused the Kremlin and the Russian MoD of failing to defend Russia, including the newly annexed territories. The #Kremlin, however, will unlikely be able to reinvade #Kharkiv Oblast as demanded by these nationalist figures.
6/ Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy #Prigozhin is also using fearmongering about a fictitious Ukrainian invasion threat and the construction of the "Zasechnaya Line" to solidify his power in Russian border regions and #Russia.
7/ (#Prigozhin earlier clarified that #Wagner is building the Zasechnaya Line after having changed its name from the "Wagner Line" because “many people in [Russia] do not like the activity of private military company Wagner.” Private military companies are illegal in Russia.)
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