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Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
@mtmalinen
Dec 6, 2022 • 15 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
The four unpleasant means to get #inflation under control:

1) Keep rising rates.
2) Getting rid of all (useless) Covid restrictions + NO more stimulus.
3) Peace in #Ukraine .
4) Running down the global balance sheet of #centralbanks .
(+ A revolution?)

🧵 1/15
#inflation = excess (monetary) demand over supply.

You need to get demand down and/or supply up to get price pressures under control.

Current situation is an (insane) combo of stimulus and demand destruction. We, e.g., should do everything to grow energy production. 2/
We are at a situation, where #inflation expectations are becoming a problem. Firms are rising prices and workers demand higher salaries in expactation of fast inflation. 👉 The worst situation.

We are also entering the second leg of #EnergyCrisis . 3/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/winter-is-he…
In this situation only drastic measures will be effective. ☝️

Effectively, you need to kill the "excess" demand. 😖

This means rising rates ABOVE or very close to the current rate of #inflation . But, financial system is likely to crumble way before. 4/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/global-liqui…
Unfortunately, this is what we may need. 😱

13 years of constant monetary meddlind by #centralbanks has created a massively bloated and fragile global #economy .

Quite simply, something has to "give". 5/
gnseconomics.com/2020/10/08/the…
We also need a peace in #Ukraine and lifting most of the sanctions, asap, to stave off global energy, food, primary energy, banking and sovereign debt crises.

A truce should be achieved before the possible (likely) winter offensive by #Russia . 6/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/the-russo-uk…
After such an event, the security (peace) structure of #Europe would be in ruins. That has never been a good thing for the world. ☝️ 7/
I've been explaining, over and over, how the asset purchase (QE) programs are a form of central bank credit. So have got it, others still not. 🤷

Still, that's a fact and all CB credit is highly inflationary. 8/
This is because it truly is #money "out of thin air".

When banks create money (credit), it's a business transaction, but when #centralbanks do it, it's manipulation of the financial and monetary system.

This difference is crucial. ☝️ 9/
So, we need to get the global balance sheet of #centralbanks down.

But again, the global financial system is unlikely to be able to cope with that. 🤦

Yet, we absolutely need to do it. 🥶
10/
 mtmalinen.substack.com/p/into-the-col…
#inflation checks are probably the stupidest idea in the current situation. 🤦

They will just keep demand artificially high sustaining #inflation pressures.

You absolutely CANNOT fix over-demand issue by increasing demand! 😡 🤦 11/
Situation is so dire, because we have let authorities and politicians to make an utter mess of things. We don't want to "face the music".

Central banks have corrupted their original purpose and European leaders have sleep-walked us into yet another war in our continent. 12/
I do fear what's in store for our continent.

#Europe has become a mockery of all it should represent (at least since the French revolution).

We should be the beacon of #freedom and #Peace but, after just three years, our ideals lay in ruins, again. 😢 13/
It's quite unfathomable how our "leaders" have been able to pull this off. 🤦🤬

Can we trust them to fix our (and the world's) problems? I am not so sure. 🤷

Maybe it would be a good time for yet another period of uprising in #Europe ? 🤔
14/
In any case, drastic actions are needed to turn our economies around and to sustain our living standards. ☝️

Otherwise, we are in major risk of destroying both our future and the future of our children.
/End
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/enter-the-pe…

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More from @mtmalinen

Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Feb 11
I hope @POTUS understands this. There will be no peace in the European continent as long as your bases are here.

There's no threat of a Soviet Union anymore. We've dealt with Russia for centuries without the U.S. "support". Those times were rather violent, but that was mostly because actions of western and central European states, not because of Russia.

The U.S. essentially created the Russo-Ukrainian war, leading to the slow economic demise of Europe. This is something the Deep State has been planning since, at least 1997.

I've explained this thoroughly in my piece detailing the history of NATO vs. Russia, which main points I will summarize here.
🧵1/9
What follows is a quote from Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski. He was a Polish-born political scientist, who served as a counselor to President Lyndon B. Johnson from 1966 to 1968 and as a National Security Advisor for President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981.

He was probably the most influential political scholar in the U.S., known for his very hawkish stance towards Russia and China, and as a major proponent of NATO enlargement.
2/
It follows that a wider Europe and an enlarged NATO will serve well both the short-term and the longer-term goals of U.S. policy.

A larger Europe will expand the range of American influence-- and, through the admission of new Central European members, also increase in the European councils the number of states with a pro-American proclivity-- without simultaneously creating a Europe politically so integrated that it could soon challenge the United States on geopolitical matters of high importance to America elsewhere, particularly in the Middle East.

This was, most likely, the plan with Ukraine. To make sure that the Eurasian alliance between China, Europe and Russia fails.
3/
Read 11 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Jan 11
You think you know what happened during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008?

The road to the GFC is long and complex. In its heart lies an innocent innovation to manage risks better, until authorities messed everything up.

The road to an (epic) financial crash. 🧵
Basically since the birth of banking, banks have been in the forefront of risk distribution through diversification and hedging. In the US, banks started to sell mortgage-backed debt obligations to investors already in the 1960s.

The idea was to distribute risk outside the balance sheet of banks, which would make more funds available for bank lending.
2/
In the late 1970s, Salomon Brothers and Bank of America Corporation started to securitize the mortgages by pooling together their interest payments and selling investors tranches based on their riskiness. The tranches became known as: junior, mezzanine and senior.

Junior was the most-risky one, but it also received the highest payments. Senior tranche was thought to be very safe. If there would be defaults on mortgages, all the other tranches would be wiped out before senior, effectively implying a collapse of the housing market.

Lewis Ranieri was a central figure in opening up the markets for mortgage-backed securities. 3/Image
Read 18 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Dec 29, 2024
The level of war-propaganda in Finland is massive.

@iltalehti_fi speculates that Russia is planning to restore the 1743 borders established in Treaty of Åbo to create a "buffer-zone". Russia would also strike Helsinki with missiles.

And there's much more. 1/13🧵 Image
Just six months ago, our government-funded (propaganda) channel @yleuutiset notified that Russian military bases near Finland are nearly empty.

I guess Russia plans to attack Finland "with shovels".
2/ Image
Continuing on the first note, @iltasanomat (our second largest daily newspaper) has just published a lengthy article (for subscribers only) on where Finns should evacuate in the case of a war.

Preparation is required "because of Russia". We did not have this "problem" before.
3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Dec 18, 2024
Russia and Israel are treated totally differently in spite of the fact that both are waging wars of invasion. The major difference is that while Russia is engaged in an existential war, Israel is waging a war of expansion.

Thread on Russia vs. Israel. 🧵1/12 Image
For an untrained eye, it may appear that the motivation behind both wars, in Ukraine and the Middle East (Gaza/Lebanon/Syria), would be the same: threat.

The difference is in the level of threat experienced.
2/
The start of the second phase of the Ukrainian military conflict in February 2022 was presented to us as an over-reaction by Kremlin. The invasion was painted as an un-provoked attack of Russia to a friendly neighbor.

In reality NATO had fought a war of provocation towards Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union in early 1990s. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Nov 10, 2024
A friend asked me sometime ago, how do I always attract women everyone wants to f*ck. The simple answer: just be a fucking man.

Your looks and content of your wallet are irrelevant to non-toxic classy women, which you want into your life. But, you need to be brutally picky.
1/ Image
Even in the deepest depths of my depression in my teenage years, I did not settle. I knew what I wanted. Never settle. ☝️

This means that you need to spend extended perios of time alone, because top-class women do not want a womanizer either. Be comfortable in your own skin.
2/
Classy women want someone they can trust. Like the blonde in the picture told me some time ago, "your woman needs to understand that there's always interested women around, but that I always come home after the evening".

Your word is the only thing you got. Protect it.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Sep 24, 2024
If it holds true that NATO has struck Russia with a tactical nuclear weapon, we would have entered a very dangerous world.

First of all, the whole nuclear deterrence policy of Russia would have been thrown out of the window. Some excepts from my article: Strategical asymmetry in a game theoretical model of a tactical nuclear first strike. 1/5
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…Image
Image
Most importantly, if the analysis of @cirnosad is correct, as I start to believe it is (no personal expertise, though), we would have entered an era of nuclear warfare, with horrendous implications. Another excerpt from my article.
2/5 Image
Researchers on nuclear warfare and deterrence have feared this step (tactical nuclear strike) for a very long time, because it changes how wars are fought. If the analysis of @cirnosad holds true, a nuclear attack to a major city is only a matter of time.
3/5
Read 5 tweets

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