Re-tested the breakout above the dominant trendline, it's too early to say it succeeded
Today it had trouble with 20DMA, and printed an inverted hammer
It closed at 55%, above the critical 50%, and above the 200DMA and trendline
It has not broken
$SMH #semiconductors had a great day today going up on higher volume.
Still in a consolidation range, but looks good to help the market move higher
One of the best of the bunch was $NVDA.
The market is beaten, but not broken.
We would have liked the Breadth indicator to have performed better today.
We continue to trade cautiously until the indices regain the 20DMA level.
•Sticky inflation
•Tight labor market
•Higher for longer
• #Rates, #Dollar ↑
•Negative breadth and classic indicators divergences
•Fed speakers will be hawkish
•VIX/VVIX at important support with positive divergences
•Bond auction failure
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
• $VIX and $VVIX below 200DMA & strong downtrend
•Positive $Gamma
•Leading stocks breakout
•Bullish and daily weekly candles
•No recession
•Leading sectors about to breakout
•Core $CPI will decelarates
#ES #SPX $SPY #SPX #BullMarket #futures
Our Take
•Market to move up on Monday
• Market will pullback hard once it hit resistance
•4435 to be strong resistance
•Expecting sector breakouts to improve breadth on next two weeks
• $VIX and $VVIX to bounce, but remain in downtrend
•Geopolitical tensions
•Sticky inflation
•Tight labor market
•Higher for longer
• #Rates, #Dollar and Vol upward
•Bearish weekly chart on all indices
• #AAPL to report poorly
•Negative $Gamma
• $FOMC
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•Indices are at/near important support
• FED to soften tone
• $VIX and $VVIX near important resistance
• Market breadth indis double dip
• $FAANG stocks bounced on high volume on Friday
• Market is extremely oversold
•4074 is a hard floor
#ES
Our Take
•Expecting $SPX futures to open positive on Sunday and SPX to close positive on Monday
•Looks like #SPX needs an extra flush before bouncing hard
•FEDs won't be too hawkish
•4074 is a hard floor to bounce from
•Expecting #VVIX to break support
• Increasing #Geopolitical tensions
•Sticky inflation
•Higher for longer
• #Rates and #Dollar are rising
•Weekly Bearish Engulfing candles with higher volume accross all indices
• $VIX and $VVIX breakout
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•All indices are at/near important support
•Big tech earnings will push the market higher
• $VIX will reverse down
• #Market breadth indis are at/near extremely low readings
• $FAANG stocks at important support
• Market is oversold
#ES_F $SPY
Our Take
•Expecting $SPX futures to open positive on Sunday and SPX to close positive on Monday
•If #SPX goes down on Monday it will trigger a sharp oversold rally
•Bulls need $VIX to fall back below 20.75
•4181 could be tested, but market will bounce from there
• #Israel - #Palestine war
•Fed: Higher for longer
•Rates at 16-year high
• #Dollar & $TNX uptrending
•New downward structure still in play
•October's bearish seasonality
•Oversold rally will fail
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•Big one-day reversal
•Bullish daily candles
•Indices bounced from important support
• $VIX reversed down and generated buy signal
• #VVIX reversed down
• Breadth thrust on Friday
• Coming earnings will help the market
#ES_F $SPY #SPX
Our Take
• 4220/4200 should hold war-generated pullback
• $VIX can spike again, but won't go above last week high
•4350 Big resistance
•Need to see how MidEast war affects markets
•Bounce alive until it breaks below 4200
•Fed: Higher for longer
•Rates at 16-year high
• #Dollar & $TNX uptrending
•Negative #Gamma
•New downward structure
•September's bearish seasonality
•Bearish weekly candles
•VVIX to remain high
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
🧵 →
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•Market to bounce
•4300 will be a temporary floor
•Indices at important support
• $VIX at resistance
•Oversold market
• Positive indicators divergence
•Coming earnings will help to float the market $MU $NKE $COST
#ES_F $SPY #BullMarket #SPX
NEXT WEEK
Our Take
• $SPX futures to open positive on Sunday and market to close positive on Monday
•4300 will hold for a few more days
• Expecting $VIX to pull back
•Market bounce will fail at 4375 or 4390
•4352 big resistance
•Hard landing
• #Dollar & $TNX uptrending
•Negative #Gamma
•Leading sectors and stocks breaking down
•Bearish seasonality
• Powell's #FOMC speech will be hawkish
• Friday's bearish impulsive candles
#ES_F $SPY #0dte #SPX #BearMarket #trade
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's Take:
•Market to open higher on Sunday, and close positive on Monday
•4430 will hold as suppport
•Indices and sectors at important support
• #VIX and #VVIX weak bounce
• Fed's pause will push the market up
• $DXY and $TNX to pull back
#ES_F $SPY
NEXT WEEK
Our Take
•4430 major $Gamma support
•4400 will hold as support if tested
• Expecting $DXY and $TNX to pullback
•4400/4500 range for the week
• #VIX and $VVIX still in downtrend
•Sideways market