The ongoing #Iran_protests reached their three-month anniversary on December 16. CTP and @TheStudyofWar present here visualizations produced from the open-source data to further inform the public discourse on this important moment in Iranian history. criticalthreats.org/analysis/data-…
This movement has seen several significant spikes in protest activity around preplanned dates followed by relative lulls in protest activity.
Protest activity decreased significantly between mid-November and late December following the regime’s harsh crackdown but has not yet stopped despite regime brutality and pressure.
Tehran, Esfahan, Kurdistan, and West Azerbaijan provinces account for nearly 40 percent of observed protest activity.
The remaining provinces fall roughly into two other tranches. The middle tranche includes other major population centers, such as Khorasan Razavi Province, and border regions, where anti-regime sentiment is high and marginalized ethnic populations are concentrated.
Protest activity varies significantly by day of the week and by province.
CTP will continue to update our assessments and data visualizations as the anti-regime movement in Iran continues to evolve. Follow the daily updates produced by CTP and the @TheStudyofWar for more analysis and information.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
NEW | Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aimed at Kyiv--since at least October 2022. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar:
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in Vysoke in Sumy Oblast (Vysoke is on the international border 50 km southeast of Sumy City) and Khatne in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on December 23.
NEW | The #Iranian regime will likely keep the mandatory hijab law but look for new, and perhaps more effective, ways to enforce it rather than using the morality patrol. Read CTP and @TheStudyofWar’s full update here:
The regime might expand an Orwellian surveillance-punishment model relying on collective punishment through shutting down non-compliant businesses and remote punishments, such as seizing financial assets in state banks, as alternatives to the morality patrol.
The Iranian regime is likely in a mounting confrontation with citizens in #Izeh, Khuzestan Province.
#Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks along the #Kreminna-#Svatove line and #Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Kreminna area.
#Ukrainian and #Russian sources reported ongoing fighting in the outskirts of #Bakhmut and to the northeast and south of the city. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured #Yakovlivka, #Donetsk Oblast, northeast of #Soledar. (3/4)