The ongoing #Iran_protests reached their three-month anniversary on December 16. CTP and @TheStudyofWar present here visualizations produced from the open-source data to further inform the public discourse on this important moment in Iranian history. criticalthreats.org/analysis/data-…
This movement has seen several significant spikes in protest activity around preplanned dates followed by relative lulls in protest activity.
Protest activity decreased significantly between mid-November and late December following the regime’s harsh crackdown but has not yet stopped despite regime brutality and pressure.
Tehran, Esfahan, Kurdistan, and West Azerbaijan provinces account for nearly 40 percent of observed protest activity.
The remaining provinces fall roughly into two other tranches. The middle tranche includes other major population centers, such as Khorasan Razavi Province, and border regions, where anti-regime sentiment is high and marginalized ethnic populations are concentrated.
Protest activity varies significantly by day of the week and by province.
CTP will continue to update our assessments and data visualizations as the anti-regime movement in Iran continues to evolve. Follow the daily updates produced by CTP and the @TheStudyofWar for more analysis and information.

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More from @criticalthreats

Dec 24
NEW | Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aimed at Kyiv--since at least October 2022. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in Vysoke in Sumy Oblast (Vysoke is on the international border 50 km southeast of Sumy City) and Khatne in Kharkiv Oblast. Image
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on December 23. Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 23
NEW | The #Iranian regime will likely keep the mandatory hijab law but look for new, and perhaps more effective, ways to enforce it rather than using the morality patrol. Read CTP and @TheStudyofWar’s full update here:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… Image
The regime might expand an Orwellian surveillance-punishment model relying on collective punishment through shutting down non-compliant businesses and remote punishments, such as seizing financial assets in state banks, as alternatives to the morality patrol.
The Iranian regime is likely in a mounting confrontation with citizens in #Izeh, Khuzestan Province.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 23
NEW | #Russian President Vladimir #Putin continues to refuse to treat #Ukrainian President Volodymyr #Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpart. Read the update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar : criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks along the #Kreminna-#Svatove line and #Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Kreminna area. Image
#Russian forces continued offensive operations in the #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka areas. Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 23
NEW | Social media accounts have reported that #Iranian security forces have begun violently killing and mass arresting citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan Province since December 21. Read the update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… (1/6) Image
One of Iran’s most senior military officers discussed how the regime can adapt to control its domestic information space. (2/6)
The Tehran and Mashhad neighborhood youth groups announced their alignment and solidarity with a group called the Seventh of Aban Front. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19
NEW | Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei and significant parts of his inner circle are continuing to misdiagnose the core problems driving the ongoing protests. Today's update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… (1/6)
#IranProtests2022
At least two protests took place in two cities across two provinces. Protests and strikes may increase in the coming days. (2/6)
Some protesters have increasingly focused on imposing economic pressure on the regime as the #Iranian Rial continues to devaluate. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Dec 18
Today's abbreviated update by @TheStudyofWar & CTP discusses the Russian military leadership's efforts to address failures in #Ukraine, the planned 12/19 #Putin-#Lukashenko meeting, and Yevgeny Prigozhin's continued efforts to legitimize the #Wagner Group: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian and #Russian sources reported that positional fighting continued along the #Svatove-#Kremmina line. (2/4)
#Ukrainian and #Russian sources reported ongoing fighting in the outskirts of #Bakhmut and to the northeast and south of the city. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured #Yakovlivka, #Donetsk Oblast, northeast of #Soledar. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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