UST yields ↘️ with curve flatteing
10/2s to -60 bps
10Y3M to -67 bps
MOVE 121.61
$TNX range = 3.62 - 4.02 ↔️
$TLT range = 98.79 - 104.92 🐻 < 100.25
Global 10Ys
UST 3.758
GILT 3.593
BUND 2.387
ITA 4.503
JPN 0.408
AUS 3.929
CAN 3.291
Let the 🎮 games begin!
The confluence of asset prices - $USD 🔺 $GOLD 🔺 $ES 🔺 $DAX 🔺 $VIX 🔺 $TNX 🔻 $WTIC 🔻 $NATGAS 🔻 - is like every participant is allocating to their favorite position at the start
Let's see how this 🏇 shakes out and have a super profitable 💰 day!
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1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.
Much will be written about 2022 full-year performance, so let’s take a look at the last 3 months of the year to see if we can discern anything from a price momentum perspective.
(T) = Trend = 3-month price momentum
2/14
The $USD -7.86% peaked in September, providing much needed relief for risk assets around the world.
Chart: $USD -2.48% in December sits at critical trend line support with all major trend levels in bearish territory.
A close below 102 opens up 99. Mean revert or die.
3/14
After a modest pull-back in November, the $UST10Y resumed its upward trajectory in December, rising +20 bps to 3.88%.
Chart: $UST10Y - If you believe BOTH growth and inflation are slowing, then this thing needs to put in a big lower higher between here and 3.977%.