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Jan 18 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed on Jan. 17 that a 4th round of prisoners who completed their contracts with the Wagner Group to fight in #Ukraine received pardons. isw.pub/UkrWar011723
2/ This is only the second time that #Prigozhin has publicly "pardoned" ex-convicts who completed their contracts with the #Wagner Group: the first time was on Jan. 5, as ISW previously reported.

ISW reported on Jan. 9 that Russian Human Rights Council member Eva Merkacheva ...
3/ ... stated that #Russian President Vladimir #Putin issued secret and preemptive pardons to Russian convicts fighting with the #Wagner Group in #Ukraine, under a secret presidential decree. ISW notes that the Russian Criminal Code and Article 89 of the Russian Constitution ...
4/4 ... stipulate that only the Russian President may issue a pardon to an individual. ISW continues to assess that these public announcements are an attempt by Prigozhin to inflate his political influence and power.
isw.pub/UkrWar011723

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Jan 20
The #Kremlin is intensifying its information operation to promote a false narrative that the war will escalate if #Ukraine receives weapons capable of striking Russian forces in occupied #Crimea. isw.pub/UkrWar01192023 Image
2/ #Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded on January 19 to a @nytimes report that US officials are considering providing Kyiv with weapons capable of striking Russian military infrastructure in occupied #Crimea and southern #Ukraine. nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/…
3/ Peskov stated that Western provisions of long-range weapons to #Ukraine that can threaten Russian forces in #Crimea will bring ”the conflict to a new qualitative level, which will not go well for global and pan-European security.”
Read 11 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jan 20
Eastern #Ukraine Update: #Luhansk Oblast

Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near #Svatove on January 19. Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions near #Kreminna. isw.pub/UkrWar01192023 Image
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a counteroffensive to capture #Novoselivske (15km northwest of #Svatove) and advanced to the railway station in the eastern part of the settlement.
3/ A milblogger said that Ukrainian forces are waiting for reinforcements to continue the counteroffensive to liberate #Kuzemivka (15km NW) of #Svatove), which they claimed is not under Ukrainian or Russian control, but ISW makes no assessments about future Ukrainian operations.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jan 20
The most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a new Russian attack against #Ukraine from #Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus. A new MDCOA of an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more plausible, though still unlikely.🧵
2/ Russian forces currently deployed in #Belarus are undergoing training rotations and redeploying to fight in eastern #Ukraine.
3/ There are no observed indicators that Russian forces in #Belarus have the command and control structures necessary for the winter or spring 2023 attack against #Ukraine about which Ukrainian issued warnings in late 2022.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jan 20
NEW: Senior #Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against #Ukraine from #Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks. isw.pub/UkrWar01192023 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Russian Def. Minister Sergey #Shoigu and Belarusian Def. Minister Viktor Khrenin in a 19 JAN call discussed unspecified bilateral military cooperation, unspecified strategic deterrence measures, &“progress in preparing” the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Troops.
3/ Russian Foreign Minister Sergey #Lavrov also met Belarusian President Alexander #Lukashenko in Minsk and discussed an unspecified Russo-Belarusian “shared vision” for #Russia’s war in #Ukraine on January 19.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jan 19
#Lavrov’s equations of the West with Nazi Germany and its support for #Ukraine with an effort to exterminate the Russian people are ludicrous and almost certainly aimed at a domestic Russian audience. isw.pub/UkrWar011823
2/ #Ukraine has never threatened to invade or seize territory beyond the internationally recognized borders of 1991. Neither NATO as an alliance nor any individual member state has threatened to invade #Russia, let alone to pursue the destruction of Russians as a people.
3/ The purpose of #Lavrov’s outrageous and absurd comparison was very likely meant to complement #Putin’s rhetoric and other Russian efforts to persuade the Russian people that #Ukraine and its Western backers pose a real and imminent threat to #Russia and to the Russian people.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jan 19
#Prigozhin directly attacked Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s presidential administration and insinuated that some officials working there are traitors who want #Russia to lose the war in #Ukraine—one of his boldest attacks against the #Kremlin to date. isw.pub/UkrWar011823 Image
2/ #Prigozhin weighed in on an ongoing Russian policy debate about banning YouTube and stated that some officials in the #Kremlin oppose banning YouTube because it would undermine their effort to have the US & Russia reestablish relations after #Russia loses the war in #Ukraine.
3/ #Prigozhin criticized the MoD’s new guidelines for Russian troops in #Ukraine that restrict the use of certain personal electronic devices in combat zones and set stricter guidelines for men’s grooming standards on January 18.
Read 8 tweets

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