2/ Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian partisans blew up the car of Valentina Mamai, a pro-Russian collaborator, entrepreneur, and member of the #Zaporizhia occupation council, in #Berdyansk with an improvised explosive device (IED).
3/ Russian security authorities are continuing to target Crimean Tatar communities in occupied #Crimea. isw.pub/UkrWar012423
4/ #Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin appointed a new head of the #Mariupol occupation administration in an effort to solidify administrative control of the occupied major city.
5/ Russian occupation authorities are continuing efforts to consolidate social, economic, and bureaucratic control of occupied territories through instituting various "standard of living" projects.
6/ Russian occupation authorities continue measures to erase Ukrainian identity and instill pro-Russian ideals into the social sphere of occupied areas.
7/ Russian occupation authorities are taking measures to build out local election infrastructure in occupied areas. isw.pub/UkrWar012423
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NEW: Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across #Ukraine on Jan. 26. Russian forces have enough drones for only a few more large-scale strikes unless they have received or will soon receive a new shipment from #Iran. isw.pub/UkrWar012623
2/ A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin & former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in #Ukraine.
3/ Russian President Vladimir #Putin continued his campaign against critical and opposition voices by cracking down on several major opposition media outlets.
The Kremlin and Russian milbloggers attempted to play down the Western provision of tanks to #Ukraine, indicating that they likely find these systems threatening to Russian prospects. isw.pub/UkrWar012523
2/ Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on 25 JAN that the Western provision of Abrams & Leopard tanks to Ukraine is "quite a failure…in terms of technological aspects" and that there is a "clear overestimation of the potential that [these tanks] will add" to Kyiv's forces.
3/ Some Russian milbloggers likely sought to reassure their domestic audiences by claiming that these systems do not pose a significant threat and that previous Western systems like HIMARS are a far more serious threat.
The array of conventional forces across the Luhansk Obl. frontline suggests that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in this sector, likely offensive, supported by limited spoiling attacks elsewhere on the frontline to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces. 1/6
2/ ISW recently discussed indicators of a potential decisive Russian effort in Luhansk. Taken in tandem with a variety of intelligence statements that #Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive operation in the coming months, it's likely the Luhansk effort would be offensive.
3/ The most probable course of a Russian offensive action in #Luhansk Oblast would be premised on launching an attack along the Svatove-Kreminna line, supported by critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run into major logistics hubs in Luhansk City and Starobilsk...
The Russian military's shift in focus towards conventional forces is also increasingly apparent on the operational and tactical levels. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar012523
2/ Various conventional elements (namely from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division and Airborne Forces) have been arrayed across the Svatove-Kreminna line in #Luhansk Oblast and are notably not supporting Wagner Group operations around #Bakhmut...
3/ ...indicating that Russian military leadership may be allocating conventional forces to what they regard as a more promising axis of advance.
The Russian military appears to be shifting its focus towards conventional forces and away from the non-traditional force structure of the Wagner Group, potentially in preparation for a decisive effort in #Luhansk Oblast. On the strategic level... isw.pub/UkrWar012523
2/ ...specific changes to Russian command reflect a gradual transition from reliance on unconventional force groupings such as the Wagner Group to supporting and empowering conventional Russian elements.
3/ The appointment of Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov to overall theater command of Russian forces in Ukraine suggests that Russian military leadership is looking to the traditional & conventional military establishment that Gerasimov represents & leads.
#Russian forces may be engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in #Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian forces and set conditions to launch a decisive offensive operation in #Luhansk Oblast.
2/ Russian forces have re-initiated offensive operations, namely limited ground attacks, on two main sectors of the front in the past few days—in central #Zaporizhia Oblast along Kamianske-Mali Shcherbaky-Mala Tokmachka line and in the Vuhledar area of western #Donetsk Oblast.
3/ Ukrainian officials have noted that these attacks are conducted by small squad-sized assault groups of 10 to 15 people and are aimed at dispersing Ukrainian defensive lines.