FWIW, here are my three takeaways from #JeremyHunt's interview in the Times:
1. Welcome emphasis on encouraging over-50s back to work. This is long overdue, and will need more than just exhortations and gimmicky 'MOT' schemes, but he seems to get this...
2. 'Putting sound money before Tory ideology' is a good line: if badly done, tax cuts could keep #inflation high and add to pressure on interest rates.
But still wrong to rule them out: well-targeted cuts could help with both demand and supply, boosting growth without inflation.
3. Prioritising cuts in business rather than personal taxes is not a bad idea: could do more for supply-side performance, with less risk of inflation.
The distinction between the two is blurred anyway: the burden of corporate taxation is ultimately borne by real people.
BUT...
The rhetoric here is hard to square with what Jeremy Hunt is actually doing: hiking corporation #tax from 19% to 25%, ending the 'super deduction' on capital spending, and extending so-called 'windfall taxes', all of which are damaging business investment.
Hunt's vision now seems limited to *redistributing* the burden of corporate taxation, by hinting at cutting taxes that are less/not dependent on profitability (business rates and employer NICs), while raising those that are.
This is not unreasonable, but we need a proper debate!
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Four quick points on the latest stories about #Brexit's impact on UK #food price #inflation...
1. This is not news: the original research by the same authors was first published (by UKICE) back in April, and the Guardian etc even wrote it up at the time!
2. These reports claim that new non-tariff barriers (NTBs) added 6% to UK #food prices in the two years to end 2021. But this number is based on hypothetical costs and modelling, not actual data on NTBs. (Recall that the UK has not imposed full checks on imports from the EU.)
3. It is still plausible that Brexit uncertainties and adjustments to UK-EU supply chains have added something to import costs and food prices.
Nonetheless, the 6% figure is really just sophisticated guesswork, especially given everything else going on over those two years.
#Unemployment rate down on the quarter but up on the month, and flattered by rise in number of people no longer actively looking for work (incl. long-term sick)
#Employment rate (first chart 👇) still below pre-Covid levels...
Earnings data a little better than expected: average total #pay (incl. bonuses) rose 6.0% in 3m to September and regular pay (excl. bonuses) by 5.7%, although still falling in real terms.
And early PAYE estimates for October point to a 6.0% increase in median pay last month...
Payroll #employment rose another 74,000 in October and remains on strong upward trend.
But separate Labour Force Survey suggests total employment (incl. self-employment) is much weaker.
Both measures have pros and cons - take your pick!
The aim of this policy is to cap gilt yields by signalling that the Bank will act as the buyer of last resort to prevent forced sales by pension funds from driving yields even higher.
If this signal is credible, the Bank will not actually have to buy anywhere near £65 billion.,,
The fact that it bought just £22 million today can also be seen as a sign that it is more comfortable with where yields are now. (Longer dated yields have fallen to around 4%.)
Note also that offers to sell today amounted to less than £2bn - a sign that the panic is easing.
#KwasiKwarteng’s reluctance to confirm that benefits will be uprated in line with #inflation has fed speculation that the government is considering a real-terms cut.
I’m going to explore this further, but at first sight it looks like a very bad idea...
To recap, benefits are usually uprated in April in line with the CPI measure of inflation recorded in the previous September. This meant that benefits rose by just 3.1% in April this year (the inflation rate in September 2021), well below actual inflation of 9.0% in April itself.
The row about this at the time was partly defused by additional one-off payments to low-income households.
But Ministers also argued that benefit claimants could expect to catch up next year when payments were uprated in line with the September CPI (probably about 10%).
The Bank will carry out *temporary* purchases of long-dated UK government bonds from 28 Sep to 14 Oct to stabilise the market.
The purchases ‘will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary’, but are *strictly time-limited*…
At the same time, the #MPC is pausing the start of active #QT (i.e. selling bonds bought under #QE) until 31 Oct.
This might be reviewed depending on economic and market conditions, but the annual target of £80bn of sales is unchanged, so this is a delay rather than a U-turn...
In my view, this is a sensible and proportionate response.
Of course, it would be better if this hadn’t been necessary, but the aim was to lower gilt yields and the intervention has worked: 30-year yields have fallen by one full percentage point (!) today...