Thread by @TheStudyofWar

Read the latest Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update from @criticalthreats & @TheStudyofWar covering activity in #Somalia, #Mali, and #Afghanistan: isw.pub/SJUpdate021623

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1626261585764253697

2/ #Somalia:

Several large-scale al Shabaab attacks on military bases across Somalia highlight that Somali counterterrorism efforts have not weakened the group’s attack capabilities. isw.pub/SJUpdate021623

3/ Meanwhile, al Shabaab is also well positioned to take advantage of a festering clan-based conflict in northern #Somalia’s disputed regions. A prolonged battle would reduce counterterrorism pressure on al Shabaab and Islamic State havens in northern Somalia.

4/ #Mali:

The Malian junta appointed several pro-Russian figures to high-ranking military positions, indicating growing Russian influence over the Malian government. isw.pub/SJUpdate021623

5/ The junta could be planning to leverage Russian assistance in a northern #Mali offensive in a highly unlikely but dangerous scenario. Any such offensive would likely increase links between militia groups and al Qaeda’s Sahelian branch without having long-term success.

6/ #Afghanistan:

#Taliban Minister of Interior and Haqqani Network leader Sirajuddin Haqqani issued a rare public criticism of the Taliban leadership, indicating escalating tensions in the Taliban government. isw.pub/SJUpdate021623

7/ Tension in the #Taliban movement will continue to build but is unlikely to result in an intra-Taliban civil war in the short run.

8/ However, the #Taliban supreme leader’s unwillingness to compromise will alienate important Taliban leaders and raise the risk of fracturing the Taliban movement over time. isw.pub/SJUpdate021623