Russian and Ukrainian military activity near Nova Kakhovka, #Kherson Oblast indicates that Russian forces are likely deployed to positions close to the bank of the #Dnipro River. isw.pub/UkrWar021723
2/ Geolocated footage published on February 17 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian tank under a bridge near the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station.
3/ A Russian milblogger amplified footage on 17 FEB showing Russian forces launching an anti-tank guided missile from a position at the Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station & striking reported Ukrainian positions in Vesele on the right/west river bank on an unspecified date
4/ Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack against #Crimea on February 17. #Sevastopol occupation head Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed that Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian drone near the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant near Sevastopol, Crimea.
5/ Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts on February 17. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are conducting drone reconnaissance and isolated strikes with loitering munitions in Kherson Oblast.
6/ Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian logistics on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast.
ISW has no significant activity to report from the #Zaporizhzia Oblast axis.
Tonight's report forecasts the unlikelihood of significantly increased Russian offensive operations this winter based on an assessment of Russian forces already committed to active operations compared w/ #Russia’s overall ground forces' order of battle.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar021923
2/ Russian conventional ground forces in #Luhansk Oblast are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other ad hoc structures.
3/ Russian conventional ground forces are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other ad hoc structures.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) promoted the Western and Eastern Military District (WMD/EMD) commanders after confirming their appointments as district commanders. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar021823
2/ Russian President Vladimir #Putin promoted WMD Commander Yevgeny Nikiforov and EMD Commander Rustam Muradov to Colonel General after the Russian MoD formally named the two as military district commanders. isw.pub/UkrWar021823
3/ Nikiforov and Muradov have likely held these positions for at least several months without the rank of Colonel-General that is typical for military district commanders. isw.pub/UkrWar021823
Russian forces secured marginal advances amidst continued offensive operations around #Bakhmut on February 18. Russian forces also continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk City and in western Donetsk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar021823
2/ Geolocated footage published on February 18 indicates that Russian forces likely secured marginal advances NW of #Bilohorivka (21km NE of #Bakhmut) and near Rozdolivka (18km north of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar021823
3/ Geolocated footage published on February 17 shows Russian forces closer to Zaliznianske (11km north of #Bakhmut) and a section of the E40 highway north of Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar021823
2/ ISW has previously assessed that the Russian military’s costly campaign in #Ukraine has likely significantly depleted the necessary Russian equipment and manpower reserves for large-scale offensives in Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar021823
3/ The Russian military's likely degraded ability to conduct mechanized maneuver warfare tactics may be denying the Russian military any tactical advances throughout Ukraine outside of marginal gains in the Bakhmut area. isw.pub/UkrWar021823
United States Vice President Kamala Harris announced on February 18 that the US had determined that #Russia had committed crimes against humanity in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar021823
2/ VP Harris stated during the #MunichSecurityConference that Russian forces “have pursued a widespread and systematic attack against a civilian population” by committing murder, torture, rape, and deportation.
3/ Harris noted that Russian forces forcibly deported hundreds of thousands of people from #Ukraine to #Russia, including children.
NEW: Russian sources are advocating for #Russia to carry out “retaliatory strikes” that would target electrical infrastructure supporting Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
2/ Russian news aggregator Readovka told its almost 1.7M subscribers that Russian forces need to prioritize the “decommissioning” of the nuclear power plant's (NPP's) external electrical infrastructure in hopes that doing so would lead to the emergency shutdown of NPPs in Ukraine
3/ Readovka did not advocate for Russian forces to directly strike nuclear power plants or attempt to cause radiological events, but rather to target separate substations that would cut off electrical supply essential to the safe operation of the plants...