Thread by @MBjegovic

Jan #PCE came in hotter than expected tdy.

After Jan employment report, #CPI and #PCE some have been calling for the #Fed to step up their hikes in order to solve the #inflation problem.

Should the #Fed do it?

A thread.

1/13

Before we go into the #PCE details, here is a comprehensive overview of the Jan employment report:

https://twitter.com/MBjegovic/status/1621596835709157377?s=20

#inflation

2/13

Also here is a comprehensive overview of the Jan #CPI and what that means for the #inflation going forward:

https://twitter.com/MBjegovic/status/1625591895047954437?s=20

3/13

#PCE goods #inflation in Jan looks a lot like Oct.

4/13

#PCE housing component has been showing substantial gains since July 2022.

At the same time real rent #inflation (as measured by @ApartmentList National Rent Index (ALNRI) has been much lower and negative for the last 5M since Sep.

5/13

@ApartmentList #PCE services #inflation with real rent #inflation (ALNRI) has been quite tame since July 2022.

6/13

@ApartmentList Both headline and core #PCE with real rent #inflation (ALNRI) have been mostly tame since July 2022.

7/13

@ApartmentList For any1 still wondering whether #inflation will pick up again, I'll repeat:

https://twitter.com/MBjegovic/status/1621265212794863616?s=20

8/13

@ApartmentList Some have been quite vocal with their calls for the #Fed to increase hikes.

But increasing hikes at this point makes little sense when by the time we'll see hikes showing up fully (many M or even yrs), their effects won't be desirable anymore.

#inflation

9/13

@ApartmentList Here is a comprehensive thread about where the #Fed's actions are leading us (even if they were to stop hiking immediately):

10/13

https://twitter.com/MBjegovic/status/1618791676289630210?s=20

@ApartmentList Are you still worried about what and when will happen with #inflation, #Fed, labor market, #recession?

Would you like to be updated about macroeconomic developments on a daily basis?

11/13

@ApartmentList These threads take a lot of time and effort to write.

If you like the content, please love and retweet to help me spread the message.

12/13

@ApartmentList Currently I'm running a trial period for my new service with daily insights on economy and markets.

Trial period is FREE of charge and will last until Friday Mar 3.

If you wish to be included, message me.

13/13