Russian forces made marginal territorial gains around #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka and continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line. 🧵(1/20)
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), Berkhivka (4km north of Bakhmut), Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), and Pivnichne (21km southwest of Bakhmut).
3/ Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that his #Wagner Group fighters captured #Yahidne (2km north of Bakhmut) and posted a picture of Wagner fighters posing near the settlement’s welcome sign that was later geolocated, indicating that Wagner fighters likely captured the settlement.
4/ Russian sources continued to claim that #WagnerGroup fighters captured #Berkhivka and completed clearing the settlement, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.
5/ Russian sources provided conflicting claims about gains near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km NW of Bakhmut): an occupation official claimed that it was captured; a prominent milblogger claimed Russian forces only entered it; another milblogger said fighting was ongoing on its outskirts.
7/ Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces destroyed a dam north of #Bakhmut and flooded the Stupky area of Bakhmut in order to slow Russian advances from the north, although ISW has seen no visual evidence of these claims.
8/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner fighters conducted assaults near Zaliznianske (11km north of Bakhmut), Vasyukivka (14km north of Bakhmut), Rozdolivka (17km northeast of Bakhmut), and Fedorivka (18km north of Bakhmut).
9/ Geolocated footage published on February 24 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal advances in eastern #Bakhmut.
10/ The Ukrainian Border Guards Service reported that the Russians have committed their most combat-ready forces to Bakhmut and that there are many Wagner Group convict personnel around the city.
11/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in the southern part of #Bakhmut and that Wagner fighters conducted ground attacks near Chasiv Yar (12km west of Bakhmut) and Dyliivka (15km southwest of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar022523
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of #Donetsk City on February 25.
13/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near #Avdiivka and within 36km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka.
14/ Geolocated footage published on February 25 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal advances southwest of #Avdiivka and near Pobieda (32km southwest of Avdiivka).
Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on February 25. Representative of the Ukrainian Tavriisk operational direction Oleksiy Dmytrashkivyskyi reported that Russian forces conducted attacks near #Vuhledar.
16/ According to Dmytrashkivyskyi Russian forces have not changed their tactics near #Vuhledar but there has been an increase in Russian forces conducting assaults without armored support...
17/ ... and even some instances of armored personnel carriers driving infantry to the frontline for dismounted assaults and then withdrawing.
18/ Dymtrashkivyskyi also reported that Russian forces transferred an unspecified number of personnel by bus from #Melitopol to the area to replenish the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades.
19/ ISW has previously reported that 43 buses of #Wagner fighters arrived in #Melitopol possibly representing one or two battalions’ worth of personnel, and Russian forces may have since transferred this group of Wagner personnel to the #Vuhledar area.
20/ ISW has not observed any visual confirmation of #Wagner fighters operating in the #Vuhledar area, and Russian forces could also have transferred mobilized personnel to replenish the severely degraded naval infantry formations. isw.pub/UkrWar022523
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#Russian officials are promoting an information operation that falsely frames Russia’s war in #Ukraine as existential to the continued existence of the Russian Federation.
2/ In an interview with state TV on 26 FEB, Putin warned that he does not know if "such an ethnic group as the Russian people can survive in the form in which it exists today" if the West succeeds in "destroying the Russian Federation and establishing control over its fragments."
3/ #Putin began to set conditions for the perpetuation of this information operation in his speech to the Federal Assembly on February 21, where he blamed the collective West for using the war in #Ukraine to threaten the existence of the #Russian Federation.
🧵#Russia likely began to run out of combat-ready forces by May 2022, forcing Russian President Vladimir #Putin to make a consequential choice between launching a volunteer recruitment campaign or ordering an unpopular involuntary reserve call-up. (1/25) isw.pub/UkrWar022623
2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) had likely advised Putin that he needed to declare mobilization as soon as possible to ensure that Russia had sufficient combat power to continue offensive operations past the capture of the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line over the summer.
3/ Putin likely rejected the Russian military’s advice to order an involuntary reserve call-up because of the unpopularity of the move, the fact that he had not set informational conditions for it, and possibly also because of his growing distrust of the Russian MoD.
NEW: Tonight's abbreviated #Ukraine update focuses on #Putin’s attempt to avoid ordering involuntary mobilization in #Russia by launching a series of irregular volunteer force generation campaigns since late May 2022 and the consequences of that attempt. isw.pub/UkrWar022623
2/ Putin sought to satisfy the need for replacements following defeats around Kyiv by conducting a voluntary recruitment campaign building on the existing campaigns already underway by quasi-official ultranationalist groups such as the Donetsk/Luhansk People’s Republics & Wagner.
3/ #Putin unsuccessfully attempted to establish new all-volunteer formations over the summer that competed with other existing quasi-official formations.
Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest of #Svatove and near #Kreminna on February 25. Geolocated footage posted yesterday shows Ukrainian forces shelling Russian infantry in Dzherelne (15km west of Svatove). isw.pub/UkrWar022523
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful offensive action near Masyutivka (51km NW of Svatove). isw.pub/UkrWar022523
3/ #Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian forces attempting to advance with heavy equipment in the #Svatove area.
UK, French, & German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership & could reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms. isw.pub/UkrWar022523
2/ @WSJ reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that it will provide advanced military equipment, arms, & ammo to #Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine... wsj.com/articles/natos…
3/ ...and falling short of #Ukraine’s aspirations for full #NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings #Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression.
A Russian source capitalized on #China's release of a 12-point peace plan to inaccurately portray China as supporting #Russia's war on #Ukraine on February 24. isw.pub/UkrWar02242023
2/ #China on 24 FEB released a “Position on the Political Settlement of the #Ukraine Crisis" that called for Ukraine and #Russia to respect each other's sovereignty, cease hostilities, resume peace talks, reduce strategic risks, and cease unilateral sanctions.
3/ Advisor to the #Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) head Rodion Miroshnik falsely asserted that #China's peace plan insinuated that #Ukraine and the West are the aggressors, supporting #Russia's framing of the war.